TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111247
Played Sep 11Finished
Vitalii S Marushchak
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116119118––––
Andrii Hrabskyi
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:47 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeVitalii S Marushchak to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii S Marushchak above · Andrii Hrabskyi below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 56 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Vitalii S Marushchak at 60.9%
56 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii S Marushchak 31–37 Andrii Hrabskyi Vitalii S Marushchak has won 31 of their 68 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:47What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Marushchak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-37 in 68
Hrabskyi
Wrong
gap of 6 in 68, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marushchak 1800 vs Hrabskyi 1580
Marushchak
Correct
both rated, 220 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marushchak 80% vs Hrabskyi 20%
Marushchak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marushchak 90% vs Hrabskyi 20%
Marushchak
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marushchak +3 · Hrabskyi -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Marushchak) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrabskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarushchak 1.53 / Hrabskyi 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Marushchak)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13111247
Marushchak1.53
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite56% won 82 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it100% 46 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it82% 64 of 78
Hrabskyi2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 118 of 293
Down 0–1, comes back25% 43 of 174
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarushchak7wins
AwayHrabskyi3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMarushchak leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarushchak71.4%5 of 7
AwayHrabskyi33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marushchak7Hrabskyi3n = 10Marushchak took 7 of 10
S2Marushchak7Hrabskyi3n = 10Marushchak took 7 of 10
S3Marushchak6Hrabskyi4n = 10Marushchak took 6 of 10
S4Marushchak5Hrabskyi2n = 7Marushchak took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarushchakHrabskyiM − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.933.6+6.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarushchakHrabskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime313 / 643 vs 223 / 51548.7%43.3%313 / 643 vs 223 / 515Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarushchakMarushchak 1.53/Hrabskyi 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Marushchak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Marushchak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 09:50V. Marushchak—157118112A. Hrabskyi—1311611133
WSep 8 · 10:40V. Marushchak—41111113A. Hrabskyi—116561
WSep 7 · 16:40V. Marushchak—11117113A. Hrabskyi—581151
WSep 4 · 13:10V. Marushchak—1111133A. Hrabskyi—85110
LSep 2 · 10:50V. Marushchak—111311982A. Hrabskyi—915811113
WSep 1 · 18:00V. Marushchak—121110113A. Hrabskyi—1071241
WAug 31 · 13:10V. Marushchak—91111143A. Hrabskyi—1125121
WAug 25 · 18:00V. Marushchak—11118113A. Hrabskyi—961151
LAug 24 · 17:10V. Marushchak—54110A. Hrabskyi—1111133
WAug 21 · 14:40V. Marushchak—1111113A. Hrabskyi—7470
V. Marushchak10
WSep 11 · 11:10V. Marushchak1.911171110113A. Yurkov1.8061171262WSep 9 · 11:50O. Seliuchenko1.835850V. Marushchak1.831111113WSep 9 · 10:50V. Marushchak1.61111159113A. Lievshin2.2098111192LSep 9 · 09:50V. Marushchak1.57157118112A. Hrabskyi2.251311611133WSep 9 · 08:20V. Marushchak1.361211123V. Mishchenko3.00108100WSep 9 · 06:20V. Marushchak1.8311711113A. Yurkov1.83911681WSep 8 · 17:10O. Kolbasenko2.255140V. Marushchak1.571111113WSep 8 · 16:10A. Yurkov1.73114113132V. Marushchak2.00511811153WSep 8 · 14:40V. Savoliuk2.50101191272V. Marushchak1.501261110113WSep 8 · 12:40A. Lievshin2.00119991V. Marushchak1.7351111113
A. Hrabskyi10
LSep 11 · 11:40A. Hrabskyi3.50912681A. Lievshin1.28111011113LSep 9 · 12:20V. Mishchenko2.2081111113A. Hrabskyi1.61117291LSep 9 · 11:20A. Yurkov1.80114118113A. Hrabskyi1.9181191182WSep 9 · 09:50V. Marushchak1.57157118112A. Hrabskyi2.251311611133LSep 9 · 07:50A. Lievshin1.30111111113A. Hrabskyi3.40138391LSep 9 · 05:50O. Seliuchenko1.7371211113A. Hrabskyi2.001110861WSep 8 · 16:40A. Hrabskyi1.5311511113V. Savoliuk2.38511881LSep 8 · 15:10A. Hrabskyi2.6311961382O. Kolbasenko1.444111111113LSep 8 · 13:40A. Hrabskyi3.406115121A. Lievshin1.3011711143LSep 8 · 12:10A. Hrabskyi2.2061011101A. Yurkov1.6111129123
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