TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094682
Played Sep 8Finished
Oleksandr Kolbasenko
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511111411––––
Vitalii S Marushchak
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:49 and never touched — 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timeVitalii S Marushchak to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Kolbasenko above · Vitalii S Marushchak below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 43 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Vitalii S Marushchak at 57.9%
43 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Kolbasenko 13–28 Vitalii S Marushchak Oleksandr Kolbasenko has won 13 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:49What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Marushchak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-28 in 41
Marushchak
Correct
gap of 15 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolbasenko 1785 vs Marushchak 1750
Kolbasenko
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolbasenko 100% vs Marushchak 100%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolbasenko 90% vs Marushchak 70%
Kolbasenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolbasenko +5 · Marushchak +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Marushchak) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marushchak form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolbasenko 2.25 / Marushchak 1.57
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Marushchak)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13094682
Kolbasenko2.25
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 9
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 24 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back24% 7 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Marushchak1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 76 of 141
Up 2–0, closes it100% 44 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it81% 60 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolbasenko3wins
AwayMarushchak7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMarushchak leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolbasenko60%3 of 5
AwayMarushchak100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolbasenko5Marushchak5n = 10split evenly
S2Kolbasenko3Marushchak7n = 10Marushchak took 7 of 10
S3Kolbasenko3Marushchak7n = 10Marushchak took 7 of 10
S4Kolbasenko0Marushchak6n = 6Marushchak took 6 of 6
S5Kolbasenko3Marushchak2n = 5Kolbasenko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolbasenkoMarushchakK − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.142.1−6.0per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolbasenkoMarushchakBasisWin rate · lifetime173 / 323 vs 307 / 64053.6%48%173 / 323 vs 307 / 640Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarushchakKolbasenko 2.25/Marushchak 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.3%
Marushchak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Marushchak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 13:10O. Kolbasenko—117117123V. Marushchak—811611102
WAug 24 · 13:10O. Kolbasenko—115116113V. Marushchak—91161172
LAug 17 · 13:10O. Kolbasenko—12112492V. Marushchak—1091111113
LAug 10 · 15:10O. Kolbasenko—81215101V. Marushchak—111413123
LAug 3 · 11:10O. Kolbasenko—7870V. Marushchak—1111113
LJul 6 · 17:10O. Kolbasenko—91230V. Marushchak—1114113
LJun 30 · 14:30O. Kolbasenko—1110100V. Marushchak—1312123
LJun 26 · 15:40O. Kolbasenko—6340V. Marushchak—1111113
WJun 12 · 14:40O. Kolbasenko—111136113V. Marushchak—78111192
LMay 29 · 14:10O. Kolbasenko—111199142V. Marushchak—511111163
O. Kolbasenko10
WSep 8 · 15:10A. Hrabskyi2.6311961382O. Kolbasenko1.444111111113WSep 8 · 14:10O. Kolbasenko2.25811611113A. Yurkov1.5711711552WSep 8 · 13:10V. Savoliuk2.3811661172O. Kolbasenko1.53611118113WSep 8 · 11:40O. Kolbasenko1.5791113123A. Lievshin2.2511511101WSep 7 · 17:10O. Kolbasenko1.30111111113P. Plakushchyi3.40137641WSep 7 · 15:10A. Hrabskyi2.50971271O. Kolbasenko1.50111110113WSep 7 · 14:10O. Kolbasenko1.671111113A. Lievshin2.106850WSep 7 · 13:10V. Marushchak1.61811611102O. Kolbasenko2.20117117123WSep 7 · 11:40O. Kolbasenko2.10811139113A. Yurkov1.67116111102LAug 26 · 12:20O. Kolbasenko2.1081141192A. Yurkov1.67114118113
V. Marushchak10
WSep 8 · 16:10A. Yurkov1.73114113132V. Marushchak2.00511811153WSep 8 · 14:40V. Savoliuk2.50101191272V. Marushchak1.501261110113WSep 8 · 12:40A. Lievshin2.00119991V. Marushchak1.7351111113WSep 8 · 10:40A. Hrabskyi2.00116561V. Marushchak1.7341111113WSep 7 · 16:40A. Hrabskyi1.91581151V. Marushchak1.8011117113WSep 7 · 15:40V. Marushchak1.918111115113A. Yurkov1.80116131382WSep 7 · 14:40V. Marushchak2.001111113P. Plakushchyi1.738670LSep 7 · 13:10V. Marushchak1.61811611102O. Kolbasenko2.20117117123LSep 7 · 11:10V. Marushchak1.7361090A. Lievshin2.001112113LSep 4 · 17:10V. Marushchak1.91101191192A. Yurkov1.80122111113
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