TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094602
Played Sep 8Finished
Anatolii Lievshin
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
115911911911––
Vitalii S Marushchak
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:38 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeVitalii S Marushchak to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnatolii Lievshin above · Vitalii S Marushchak below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 76 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Vitalii S Marushchak at 55.3%
76 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Lievshin 5–12 Vitalii S Marushchak Anatolii Lievshin has won 5 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:38What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Marushchak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-12 in 17
Marushchak
Correct
gap of 7 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lievshin 1683 vs Marushchak 1731
Marushchak
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lievshin 20% vs Marushchak 80%
Marushchak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lievshin 40% vs Marushchak 70%
Marushchak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lievshin -2 · Marushchak +4
Marushchak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Marushchak) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marushchak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLievshin 2.00 / Marushchak 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Marushchak)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13094602
Lievshin2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog54% won 54 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back22% 11 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 33
Marushchak1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 76 of 141
Up 2–0, closes it100% 44 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it81% 60 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLievshin3wins
AwayMarushchak7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMarushchak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLievshin60%3 of 5
AwayMarushchak100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lievshin5Marushchak5n = 10split evenly
S2Lievshin5Marushchak5n = 10split evenly
S3Lievshin5Marushchak5n = 10split evenly
S4Lievshin2Marushchak3n = 5Marushchak took 3 of 5
S5Lievshin0Marushchak3n = 3Marushchak took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLievshinMarushchakL − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.837.8−2.0per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLievshinMarushchakBasisWin rate · lifetime169 / 303 vs 305 / 63855.8%47.8%169 / 303 vs 305 / 638Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarushchakLievshin 2.00/Marushchak 1.73
Hit
What we said
56.1%
Marushchak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Marushchak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 11:10A. Lievshin—1112113V. Marushchak—61090
LSep 4 · 14:10A. Lievshin—821161V. Marushchak—11118113
LSep 2 · 06:20A. Lievshin—1013118102V. Marushchak—1211711123
LSep 1 · 12:30A. Lievshin—16890V. Marushchak—1811113
LAug 31 · 14:10A. Lievshin—7450V. Marushchak—1111113
LAug 28 · 11:10A. Lievshin—811861V. Marushchak—11611113
LAug 25 · 12:30A. Lievshin—1161011102V. Marushchak—311129123
LAug 24 · 11:40A. Lievshin—115121372V. Marushchak—9111411113
WAug 21 · 15:40A. Lievshin—1111113V. Marushchak—6880
WAug 18 · 13:00A. Lievshin—1211113V. Marushchak—10840
A. Lievshin10
WSep 8 · 13:40A. Hrabskyi3.406115121A. Lievshin1.3011711143LSep 8 · 11:40O. Kolbasenko1.5791113123A. Lievshin2.2511511101LSep 7 · 17:40A. Yurkov2.101411119113A. Lievshin1.67127131162WSep 7 · 16:10A. Lievshin1.36111114113P. Plakushchyi3.006131211LSep 7 · 14:10O. Kolbasenko1.671111113A. Lievshin2.106850LSep 7 · 12:10A. Hrabskyi3.75138115113A. Lievshin1.25111181172WSep 7 · 11:10V. Marushchak1.7361090A. Lievshin2.001112113LSep 4 · 17:40V. Savoliuk2.2511811113A. Lievshin1.57811961WSep 4 · 16:10A. Lievshin1.7351111113A. Yurkov2.00118861LSep 4 · 14:10V. Marushchak1.7311118113A. Lievshin2.00821161
V. Marushchak10
WSep 8 · 10:40A. Hrabskyi2.00116561V. Marushchak1.7341111113WSep 7 · 16:40A. Hrabskyi1.91581151V. Marushchak1.8011117113WSep 7 · 15:40V. Marushchak1.918111115113A. Yurkov1.80116131382WSep 7 · 14:40V. Marushchak2.001111113P. Plakushchyi1.738670LSep 7 · 13:10V. Marushchak1.61811611102O. Kolbasenko2.20117117123LSep 7 · 11:10V. Marushchak1.7361090A. Lievshin2.001112113LSep 4 · 17:10V. Marushchak1.91101191192A. Yurkov1.80122111113WSep 4 · 15:10V. Voronenko2.25811441V. Marushchak1.5711911113WSep 4 · 14:10V. Marushchak1.7311118113A. Lievshin2.00821161WSep 4 · 13:10A. Hrabskyi1.9185110V. Marushchak1.801111133
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