TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100743
Played Sep 9Finished
Oleksandr Seliuchenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511811511––––
Vitalii S Marushchak
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVitalii S Marushchak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Seliuchenko above · Vitalii S Marushchak below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 51 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Vitalii S Marushchak at 54.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Seliuchenko 8–10 Vitalii S Marushchak Oleksandr Seliuchenko has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:22What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Marushchak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-10 in 18
Marushchak
Correct
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Seliuchenko 1701 vs Marushchak 1782
Marushchak
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Seliuchenko 40% vs Marushchak 80%
Marushchak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Seliuchenko 20% vs Marushchak 90%
Marushchak
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Seliuchenko -2 · Marushchak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Marushchak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marushchak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSeliuchenko 1.83 / Marushchak 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Marushchak)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13100743
Seliuchenko1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Marushchak1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSeliuchenko6wins
AwayMarushchak4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSeliuchenko leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSeliuchenko80%4 of 5
AwayMarushchak60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Seliuchenko5Marushchak5n = 10split evenly
S2Seliuchenko6Marushchak4n = 10Seliuchenko took 6 of 10
S3Seliuchenko5Marushchak5n = 10split evenly
S4Seliuchenko4Marushchak2n = 6Seliuchenko took 4 of 6
S5Seliuchenko2Marushchak2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeliuchenkoMarushchakS − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.635.7+0.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeliuchenkoMarushchakBasisWin rate · lifetime178 / 297 vs 312 / 64659.9%48.3%178 / 297 vs 312 / 646Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarushchakSeliuchenko 1.83/Marushchak 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Marushchak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Marushchak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 08:20O. Seliuchenko—13911682V. Marushchak—1111811113
WSep 1 · 16:00O. Seliuchenko—1111113V. Marushchak—2690
LAug 28 · 14:40O. Seliuchenko—9730V. Marushchak—1111113
LAug 25 · 16:00O. Seliuchenko—111211392V. Marushchak—1310511113
WAug 18 · 14:00O. Seliuchenko—12117113V. Marushchak—1061191
WAug 5 · 09:20O. Seliuchenko—1111113V. Marushchak—8670
LAug 4 · 17:44O. Seliuchenko—7650V. Marushchak—1111113
WAug 4 · 13:30O. Seliuchenko—119111113V. Marushchak—61111972
WJul 31 · 17:10O. Seliuchenko—91111113V. Marushchak—117761
WJul 28 · 18:30O. Seliuchenko—911211113V. Marushchak—11711562
O. Seliuchenko10
LSep 9 · 10:20O. Seliuchenko1.5791110101V. Mishchenko2.2511612123LSep 9 · 08:50O. Seliuchenko1.802540A. Lievshin1.911111113WSep 9 · 07:20O. Seliuchenko1.801211113A. Yurkov1.9110450WSep 9 · 05:50O. Seliuchenko1.7371211113A. Hrabskyi2.001110861LSep 2 · 12:20O. Seliuchenko1.91971171A. Yurkov1.8011116113LSep 2 · 10:20Y. Shmyndra1.831111113O. Seliuchenko1.837410LSep 2 · 09:20O. Seliuchenko1.801111411A. Lievshin1.9113811113LSep 2 · 08:20V. Marushchak2.001111811113O. Seliuchenko1.7313911682LSep 1 · 18:30Y. Shmyndra2.001111113O. Seliuchenko1.734390LSep 1 · 17:30A. Lievshin2.001114113O. Seliuchenko1.7351270
V. Marushchak10
WSep 9 · 10:50V. Marushchak1.61111159113A. Lievshin2.2098111192LSep 9 · 09:50V. Marushchak1.57157118112A. Hrabskyi2.251311611133WSep 9 · 08:20V. Marushchak1.361211123V. Mishchenko3.00108100WSep 9 · 06:20V. Marushchak1.8311711113A. Yurkov1.83911681WSep 8 · 17:10O. Kolbasenko2.255140V. Marushchak1.571111113WSep 8 · 16:10A. Yurkov1.73114113132V. Marushchak2.00511811153WSep 8 · 14:40V. Savoliuk2.50101191272V. Marushchak1.501261110113WSep 8 · 12:40A. Lievshin2.00119991V. Marushchak1.7351111113WSep 8 · 10:40A. Hrabskyi2.00116561V. Marushchak1.7341111113WSep 2 · 08:20V. Marushchak2.001111811113O. Seliuchenko1.7313911682
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