TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100705
Played Sep 9Finished
Vladyslav Mishchenko
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811117112119––
Andrii Hrabskyi
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:20 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeAndrii Hrabskyi to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladyslav Mishchenko above · Andrii Hrabskyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 70 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Andrii Hrabskyi at 58.1%
70 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Mishchenko 15–22 Andrii Hrabskyi Vladyslav Mishchenko has won 15 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:20What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Hrabskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-22 in 37
Hrabskyi
Wrong
gap of 7 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mishchenko 1581 vs Hrabskyi 1612
Hrabskyi
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mishchenko 20% vs Hrabskyi 40%
Hrabskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mishchenko 20% vs Hrabskyi 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mishchenko +1 · Hrabskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Hrabskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrabskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMishchenko 2.20 / Hrabskyi 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Hrabskyi)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13100705
Mishchenko2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog34% won 43 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back17% 13 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 51
Hrabskyi1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 64 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it97% 35 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it73% 51 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMishchenko2wins
AwayHrabskyi8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHrabskyi leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMishchenko66.7%2 of 3
AwayHrabskyi100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mishchenko3Hrabskyi7n = 10Hrabskyi took 7 of 10
S2Mishchenko4Hrabskyi6n = 10Hrabskyi took 6 of 10
S3Mishchenko3Hrabskyi7n = 10Hrabskyi took 7 of 10
S4Mishchenko3Hrabskyi3n = 6split evenly
S5Mishchenko1Hrabskyi3n = 4Hrabskyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMishchenkoHrabskyiM − HBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.443.6−4.2per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMishchenkoHrabskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime197 / 421 vs 223 / 51346.8%43.5%197 / 421 vs 223 / 513Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HrabskyiMishchenko 2.20/Hrabskyi 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Hrabskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mishchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 08:50V. Mishchenko—17860A. Hrabskyi—1911113
LAug 21 · 17:10V. Mishchenko—1012851A. Hrabskyi—121011113
WAug 14 · 15:10V. Mishchenko—1111113A. Hrabskyi—9970
LAug 12 · 09:50V. Mishchenko—10980A. Hrabskyi—1211113
LAug 7 · 14:40V. Mishchenko—111161492A. Hrabskyi—881116113
LAug 3 · 17:10V. Mishchenko—911771A. Hrabskyi—11911113
WJul 29 · 12:20V. Mishchenko—115911113A. Hrabskyi—81111992
LJul 27 · 17:10V. Mishchenko—89160A. Hrabskyi—1111183
LJul 24 · 17:10V. Mishchenko—913111162A. Hrabskyi—111598113
LJul 13 · 10:40V. Mishchenko—129131182A. Hrabskyi—1411117113
V. Mishchenko10
WSep 9 · 10:20O. Seliuchenko1.5791110101V. Mishchenko2.2511612123LSep 9 · 09:20V. Mishchenko2.108660A. Yurkov1.671111113LSep 9 · 08:20V. Marushchak1.361211123V. Mishchenko3.00108100LSep 9 · 06:50V. Mishchenko1.9112560A. Lievshin1.801411113LAug 26 · 11:50V. Mishchenko2.25811851O. Seliuchenko1.5711911113LAug 26 · 10:20V. Mishchenko2.385730O. Kolbasenko1.531111113LAug 26 · 08:50V. Mishchenko2.1017860A. Hrabskyi1.671911113WAug 26 · 07:20V. Mishchenko2.00115211113A. Lievshin1.7371111792LAug 26 · 05:50V. Mishchenko2.3856100A. Yurkov1.531111123LAug 21 · 17:10V. Mishchenko2.101012851A. Hrabskyi1.67121011113
A. Hrabskyi10
LSep 9 · 11:20A. Yurkov1.80114118113A. Hrabskyi1.9181191182WSep 9 · 09:50V. Marushchak1.57157118112A. Hrabskyi2.251311611133LSep 9 · 07:50A. Lievshin1.30111111113A. Hrabskyi3.40138391LSep 9 · 05:50O. Seliuchenko1.7371211113A. Hrabskyi2.001110861WSep 8 · 16:40A. Hrabskyi1.5311511113V. Savoliuk2.38511881LSep 8 · 15:10A. Hrabskyi2.6311961382O. Kolbasenko1.444111111113LSep 8 · 13:40A. Hrabskyi3.406115121A. Lievshin1.3011711143LSep 8 · 12:10A. Hrabskyi2.2061011101A. Yurkov1.6111129123WAug 26 · 08:50V. Mishchenko2.1017860A. Hrabskyi1.671911113WAug 21 · 17:10V. Mishchenko2.101012851A. Hrabskyi1.67121011113
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