TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100514
Played Sep 9Finished
Vladyslav Mishchenko
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1214511611––––
Anatolii Lievshin
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Lievshin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladyslav Mishchenko above · Anatolii Lievshin below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 59 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Anatolii Lievshin at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Mishchenko 4–2 Anatolii Lievshin Anatolii Lievshin has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:51What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Lievshin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Mishchenko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mishchenko 1582 vs Lievshin 1693
Lievshin
Correct
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mishchenko 20% vs Lievshin 40%
Lievshin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mishchenko 30% vs Lievshin 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mishchenko -3 · Lievshin -1
Mishchenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lievshin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lievshin form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMishchenko 1.91 / Lievshin 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lievshin)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13100514
Mishchenko1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 43 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back17% 13 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 51
Lievshin1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 116 of 203
Up 2–0, closes it93% 56 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it82% 92 of 112
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMishchenko4wins
AwayLievshin2wins
1 of 6 to a deciderMishchenko leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMishchenko100%4 of 4
AwayLievshinn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mishchenko4Lievshin2n = 6Mishchenko took 4 of 6
S2Mishchenko4Lievshin2n = 6Mishchenko took 4 of 6
S3Mishchenko2Lievshin4n = 6Lievshin took 4 of 6
S4Mishchenko2Lievshin1n = 3Mishchenko took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricMishchenkoLievshinM − LBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match35.332.0+3.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMishchenkoLievshinBasisWin rate · lifetime196 / 418 vs 172 / 30846.9%55.8%196 / 418 vs 172 / 308Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LievshinMishchenko 1.91/Lievshin 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lievshin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lievshin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 9 · 06:50V. Mishchenko—12560A. Lievshin—1411113
WAug 26 · 07:20V. Mishchenko—115211113A. Lievshin—71111792
WAug 21 · 11:40V. Mishchenko—1111113A. Lievshin—5650
LAug 14 · 14:10V. Mishchenko—1011981A. Lievshin—12711113
WAug 12 · 10:50V. Mishchenko—13118133A. Lievshin—11311111
WAug 7 · 15:40V. Mishchenko—1111113A. Lievshin—5670
V. Mishchenko10
LAug 26 · 11:50V. Mishchenko2.25811851O. Seliuchenko1.5711911113LAug 26 · 10:20V. Mishchenko2.385730O. Kolbasenko1.531111113LAug 26 · 08:50V. Mishchenko2.1017860A. Hrabskyi1.671911113WAug 26 · 07:20V. Mishchenko2.00115211113A. Lievshin1.7371111792LAug 26 · 05:50V. Mishchenko2.3856100A. Yurkov1.531111123LAug 21 · 17:10V. Mishchenko2.101012851A. Hrabskyi1.67121011113LAug 21 · 15:10V. Voronenko1.73641111113V. Mishchenko2.0011117362WAug 21 · 14:10V. Mishchenko2.2511124123A. Yurkov1.5781011101LAug 21 · 13:10V. Marushchak1.5311128113V. Mishchenko2.388101181WAug 21 · 11:40V. Mishchenko1.831111113A. Lievshin1.835650
A. Lievshin10
LSep 8 · 17:40A. Lievshin1.7341191162A. Yurkov2.00119114113WSep 8 · 15:40V. Savoliuk1.83117117102A. Lievshin1.83911911123WSep 8 · 13:40A. Hrabskyi3.406115121A. Lievshin1.3011711143LSep 8 · 12:40A. Lievshin2.00119991V. Marushchak1.7351111113LSep 8 · 11:40O. Kolbasenko1.5791113123A. Lievshin2.2511511101LSep 7 · 17:40A. Yurkov2.101411119113A. Lievshin1.67127131162WSep 7 · 16:10A. Lievshin1.36111114113P. Plakushchyi3.006131211LSep 7 · 14:10O. Kolbasenko1.671111113A. Lievshin2.106850LAug 26 · 07:20V. Mishchenko2.00115211113A. Lievshin1.7371111792LAug 21 · 11:40V. Mishchenko1.831111113A. Lievshin1.835650
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