TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111041
Played Sep 11Finished
Vitalii S Marushchak
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118116118––––
Oleksandr Seliuchenko
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:05 and never touched — 57.3% is still 57.3%
Graded at full timeVitalii S Marushchak to win
57.3%
57.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii S Marushchak above · Oleksandr Seliuchenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 55 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Vitalii S Marushchak at 57.3%
55 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii S Marushchak 11–8 Oleksandr Seliuchenko Oleksandr Seliuchenko has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:05What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Marushchak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-8 in 19
Marushchak
Correct
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marushchak 1807 vs Seliuchenko 1648
Marushchak
Correct
both rated, 159 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marushchak 80% vs Seliuchenko 0%
Marushchak
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marushchak 90% vs Seliuchenko 20%
Marushchak
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marushchak +4 · Seliuchenko -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Marushchak) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Seliuchenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarushchak 1.61 / Seliuchenko 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Marushchak)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13111041
Marushchak1.61
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite56% won 82 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it100% 46 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it82% 64 of 78
Seliuchenko2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog61% won 54 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back42% 18 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back17% 4 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarushchak5wins
AwaySeliuchenko5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarushchak80%4 of 5
AwaySeliuchenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marushchak5Seliuchenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Marushchak5Seliuchenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Marushchak5Seliuchenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Marushchak2Seliuchenko3n = 5Seliuchenko took 3 of 5
S5Marushchak2Seliuchenko1n = 3Marushchak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarushchakSeliuchenkoM − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.034.0+1.0per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarushchakSeliuchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime314 / 644 vs 178 / 30048.8%59.3%314 / 644 vs 178 / 300Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarushchakMarushchak 1.61/Seliuchenko 2.20
Hit
What we said
61.3%
Marushchak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Marushchak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 11:50V. Marushchak—1111113O. Seliuchenko—5850
WSep 2 · 08:20V. Marushchak—1111811113O. Seliuchenko—13911682
LSep 1 · 16:00V. Marushchak—2690O. Seliuchenko—1111113
WAug 28 · 14:40V. Marushchak—1111113O. Seliuchenko—9730
WAug 25 · 16:00V. Marushchak—1310511113O. Seliuchenko—111211392
LAug 18 · 14:00V. Marushchak—1061191O. Seliuchenko—12117113
LAug 5 · 09:20V. Marushchak—8670O. Seliuchenko—1111113
WAug 4 · 17:44V. Marushchak—1111113O. Seliuchenko—7650
LAug 4 · 13:30V. Marushchak—61111972O. Seliuchenko—119111113
LJul 31 · 17:10V. Marushchak—117761O. Seliuchenko—91111113
V. Marushchak10
WSep 11 · 13:10V. Marushchak1.531111113A. Hrabskyi2.386980WSep 11 · 11:10V. Marushchak1.911171110113A. Yurkov1.8061171262WSep 9 · 11:50O. Seliuchenko1.835850V. Marushchak1.831111113WSep 9 · 10:50V. Marushchak1.61111159113A. Lievshin2.2098111192LSep 9 · 09:50V. Marushchak1.57157118112A. Hrabskyi2.251311611133WSep 9 · 08:20V. Marushchak1.361211123V. Mishchenko3.00108100WSep 9 · 06:20V. Marushchak1.8311711113A. Yurkov1.83911681WSep 8 · 17:10O. Kolbasenko2.255140V. Marushchak1.571111113WSep 8 · 16:10A. Yurkov1.73114113132V. Marushchak2.00511811153WSep 8 · 14:40V. Savoliuk2.50101191272V. Marushchak1.501261110113
O. Seliuchenko10
LSep 11 · 12:40A. Lievshin1.731111113O. Seliuchenko2.005520LSep 11 · 10:40V. Voronenko2.201111123O. Seliuchenko1.6157100LSep 9 · 11:50O. Seliuchenko1.835850V. Marushchak1.831111113LSep 9 · 10:20O. Seliuchenko1.5791110101V. Mishchenko2.2511612123LSep 9 · 08:50O. Seliuchenko1.802540A. Lievshin1.911111113WSep 9 · 07:20O. Seliuchenko1.801211113A. Yurkov1.9110450WSep 9 · 05:50O. Seliuchenko1.7371211113A. Hrabskyi2.001110861LSep 2 · 12:20O. Seliuchenko1.91971171A. Yurkov1.8011116113LSep 2 · 10:20Y. Shmyndra1.831111113O. Seliuchenko1.837410LSep 2 · 09:20O. Seliuchenko1.801111411A. Lievshin1.9113811113
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