TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13129867
Played Sep 15Finished
Jiri Svec
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119711811116611
Miloslav Lubas
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:03 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeMiloslav Lubas to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Svec above · Miloslav Lubas below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 91 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Miloslav Lubas at 55.3%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Svec 17–28 Miloslav Lubas Jiri Svec has won 17 of their 45 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickContradict
Sealed 15:03What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Lubas
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-28 in 45
Lubas
Correct
gap of 11 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svec 1292 vs Lubas 1253
Svec
Wrong
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svec 40% vs Lubas 80%
Lubas
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svec 60% vs Lubas 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svec -2 · Lubas +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lubas) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lubas form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvec 2.00 / Lubas 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lubas)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13129867
Svec2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 56 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back17% 14 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 53
Lubas1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 24 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it85% 17 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvec5wins
AwayLubas5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvec83.3%5 of 6
AwayLubas100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svec6Lubas4n = 10Svec took 6 of 10
S2Svec2Lubas8n = 10Lubas took 8 of 10
S3Svec5Lubas5n = 10split evenly
S4Svec2Lubas2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvecLubasS − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match32.131.7+0.4per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvecLubasBasisWin rate · lifetime392 / 844 vs 160 / 32846.5%48.8%392 / 844 vs 160 / 328Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvecSvec 2.00/Lubas 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Lubas · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lubas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 10:30J. Svec228770M. Lubas331111113
WAug 8 · 17:02J. Svec331111113M. Lubas179440
WAug 8 · 16:30J. Svec43111011113M. Lubas35912681
LMay 26 · 10:00J. Svec1733110M. Lubas351111133
WApr 11 · 18:30J. Svec4111611133M. Lubas345117111
LApr 9 · 12:59J. Svec206680M. Lubas331111113
LApr 9 · 12:30J. Svec25101050M. Lubas351212113
LApr 2 · 13:00J. Svec371179101M. Lubas3621111123
WApr 2 · 10:00J. Svec50118119113M. Lubas4591161182
WMar 26 · 13:00J. Svec331111113M. Lubas147340
J. Svec10
LSep 15 · 17:10L. Havrda1.92812611113J. Svec1.78111011962LSep 15 · 15:00J. Svec1.619118101L. Havrda2.2011711123LSep 15 · 14:00V. Stach2.751612711113J. Svec1.40181011752WSep 13 · 09:30M. Barta1.8753131172J. Svec1.831111118113LSep 13 · 08:30J. Svec1.8081170M. Bohac1.911113113WSep 13 · 07:00J. Svec2.75611314113F. Trojan1.40119111252WSep 13 · 06:00M. Barta1.678780J. Svec2.101111113LSep 12 · 17:29J. Svec2.2511770J. Grohsgott1.571311113WSep 12 · 16:30M. Syroha1.8391120J. Svec1.831113113WSep 12 · 15:30J. Svec2.2091111113J. Grohsgott1.61117681
M. Lubas10
WSep 15 · 15:30M. Lubas1.44149117113V. Stach2.63121191182LSep 15 · 14:30L. Havrda2.0011112113M. Lubas1.73981141WSep 7 · 13:30M. Lubas1.671111113D. Mutl2.107830WSep 7 · 12:30M. Lubas1.731111113M. Regner2.004440WSep 7 · 11:00M. Lubas1.73911811123D. Mutl2.00116117102WSep 7 · 10:00M. Vaclavik1.5711115111M. Lubas2.2591311133LSep 3 · 21:00J. Pelikan1.67411211113M. Lubas2.1011811452LSep 3 · 20:30M. Lubas2.105790V. Sr1.671111113LSep 3 · 19:00M. Lubas2.101011111282J. Pelikan1.67124314113LSep 3 · 18:00J. Grohsgott2.2011119113M. Lubas1.61581191
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