TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13128426
Played Sep 14Finished
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161181210––––
Oleksandr Naida
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Derevynskyi above · Oleksandr Naida below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 58 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Derevynskyi 72–67 Oleksandr Naida Oleksandr Naida has won 67 of their 139 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:02What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Derevynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
72-67 in 139
Derevynskyi
Correct
gap of 5 in 139, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevynskyi 1562 vs Naida 1493
Derevynskyi
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevynskyi 40% vs Naida 60%
Naida
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevynskyi 40% vs Naida 70%
Naida
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevynskyi -3 · Naida -2
Derevynskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Derevynskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevynskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevynskyi 1.73 / Naida 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Derevynskyi)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13128426
Derevynskyi1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 189 of 323
Up 2–0, closes it91% 87 of 96
Up 1–0, closes it71% 135 of 189
Naida2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 71 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back28% 27 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevynskyi5wins
AwayNaida5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevynskyi100%4 of 4
AwayNaida83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevynskyi4Naida6n = 10Naida took 6 of 10
S2Derevynskyi7Naida3n = 10Derevynskyi took 7 of 10
S3Derevynskyi4Naida6n = 10Naida took 6 of 10
S4Derevynskyi5Naida3n = 8Derevynskyi took 5 of 8
S5Derevynskyi1Naida2n = 3Naida took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDerevynskyiNaidaD − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.038.7+0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDerevynskyiNaidaBasisWin rate · lifetime474 / 869 vs 481 / 93254.6%51.6%474 / 869 vs 481 / 932Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiDerevynskyi 1.73/Naida 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Derevynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 28 · 22:05D. Derevynskyi51971212113O. Naida481111101062
LJul 27 · 24:55D. Derevynskyi359111051O. Naida3911512113
WJul 15 · 20:25D. Derevynskyi4011115133O. Naida365911111
WJul 14 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi4211911113O. Naida29911091
LJul 8 · 14:25D. Derevynskyi46912113112O. Naida541110911133
WJul 8 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi331111113O. Naida229580
WJul 7 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi45111211113O. Naida368101351
LJul 1 · 16:25D. Derevynskyi4171221192O. Naida491110116113
LJul 1 · 24:05D. Derevynskyi2491050O. Naida341112113
LJun 29 · 23:55D. Derevynskyi337111051O. Naida4011612113
D. Derevynskyi10
LSep 15 · 02:25D. Derevynskyi1.73117116102S. Skachenko2.00611311123LSep 15 · 01:25D. Derevynskyi1.80911811122R. Gnoevoy1.91118118143LSep 14 · 21:55D. Derevynskyi1.8011113111S. Abalmaz1.9181311133LSep 12 · 03:35D. Derevynskyi1.571211138102O. Melashenko2.251491111123LSep 12 · 01:35Y. Krol2.631211133D. Derevynskyi1.44105110WSep 12 · 24:35D. Derevynskyi2.631111113O. Gomilko1.445760WSep 11 · 23:35K. Hrynenko2.50711791D. Derevynskyi1.5011711113LSep 11 · 22:05D. Derevynskyi2.505970V. Lobas1.501111113LSep 11 · 04:25D. Derevynskyi1.73771191S. Abalmaz2.0011119113LSep 11 · 24:25V. Khamurda1.8011711113D. Derevynskyi1.91711791
O. Naida10
LSep 15 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.831111113O. Naida1.836990LSep 15 · 24:55O. Naida2.6371270S. Abalmaz1.441114113LSep 14 · 22:25O. Naida2.104650S. Skachenko1.671111113LSep 9 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.8311611113O. Naida1.83611971WSep 9 · 02:35D. Us2.3811351252O. Naida1.538111110113WSep 9 · 01:05S. Khandetskyi2.50114911112O. Naida1.50511119133WSep 8 · 23:05S. Pitsyk1.83911981O. Naida1.8311911113WSep 8 · 21:05D. Rehotun1.735250O. Naida2.001111113LSep 7 · 20:25O. Naida1.44951181S. Khandetskyi2.6311114113WSep 7 · 18:25P. Ishchyk3.25116611102O. Naida1.33711119123
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