TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13128296
Played Sep 15Finished
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111188111181214
Roman Gnoevoy
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Derevynskyi above · Roman Gnoevoy below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 103 set 5, 12-14 — our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 54.0%
103 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Derevynskyi 73–65 Roman Gnoevoy Roman Gnoevoy has won 65 of their 138 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 08:31What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Derevynskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
73-65 in 138
Derevynskyi
Wrong
gap of 8 in 138, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevynskyi 1573 vs Gnoevoy 1494
Derevynskyi
Wrong
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevynskyi 40% vs Gnoevoy 20%
Derevynskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevynskyi 40% vs Gnoevoy 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevynskyi +1 · Gnoevoy +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Derevynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gnoevoy form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevynskyi 1.80 / Gnoevoy 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Derevynskyi)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13128296
Derevynskyi1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 189 of 323
Up 2–0, closes it91% 87 of 96
Up 1–0, closes it71% 135 of 189
Gnoevoy1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog47% won 88 of 186
Down 0–1, comes back24% 23 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back12% 7 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevynskyi6wins
AwayGnoevoy4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDerevynskyi leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevynskyi100%5 of 5
AwayGnoevoy80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevynskyi5Gnoevoy5n = 10split evenly
S2Derevynskyi7Gnoevoy3n = 10Derevynskyi took 7 of 10
S3Derevynskyi8Gnoevoy2n = 10Derevynskyi took 8 of 10
S4Derevynskyi1Gnoevoy4n = 5Gnoevoy took 4 of 5
S5Derevynskyi2Gnoevoy2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDerevynskyiGnoevoyD − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.534.8+2.7per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDerevynskyiGnoevoyBasisWin rate · lifetime475 / 870 vs 406 / 81654.6%49.8%475 / 870 vs 406 / 816Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiDerevynskyi 1.80/Gnoevoy 1.91
Miss
What we said
54%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Gnoevoy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 22:25D. Derevynskyi501112115113R. Gnoevoy49910131162
LSep 8 · 18:55D. Derevynskyi258980R. Gnoevoy331111113
WSep 8 · 02:25D. Derevynskyi331111113R. Gnoevoy229760
WSep 3 · 21:55D. Derevynskyi41511113113R. Gnoevoy4711891182
LSep 1 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi4786131282R. Gnoevoy5411111110113
WAug 30 · 21:25D. Derevynskyi331111113R. Gnoevoy207490
LAug 13 · 21:55D. Derevynskyi34681191R. Gnoevoy3911116113
WAug 4 · 24:55D. Derevynskyi331111113R. Gnoevoy205870
WJul 28 · 23:05D. Derevynskyi331111113R. Gnoevoy188370
LJul 26 · 22:55D. Derevynskyi4671111892R. Gnoevoy46115811113
D. Derevynskyi10
LSep 15 · 02:25D. Derevynskyi1.73117116102S. Skachenko2.00611311123WSep 14 · 23:55D. Derevynskyi1.731111123O. Naida2.0068100LSep 14 · 21:55D. Derevynskyi1.8011113111S. Abalmaz1.9181311133LSep 12 · 03:35D. Derevynskyi1.571211138102O. Melashenko2.251491111123LSep 12 · 01:35Y. Krol2.631211133D. Derevynskyi1.44105110WSep 12 · 24:35D. Derevynskyi2.631111113O. Gomilko1.445760WSep 11 · 23:35K. Hrynenko2.50711791D. Derevynskyi1.5011711113LSep 11 · 22:05D. Derevynskyi2.505970V. Lobas1.501111113LSep 11 · 04:25D. Derevynskyi1.73771191S. Abalmaz2.0011119113LSep 11 · 24:25V. Khamurda1.8011711113D. Derevynskyi1.91711791
R. Gnoevoy10
WSep 14 · 23:25S. Skachenko1.83119116102R. Gnoevoy1.83511811123LSep 14 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.7311811113R. Gnoevoy2.00711641LSep 11 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.508590T. Ponomarenko2.501111113LSep 11 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.73111376163R. Gnoevoy2.004111111142LSep 11 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy1.919460S. Abalmaz1.801111113LSep 10 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy2.00910131162D. Derevynskyi1.731112115113LSep 8 · 20:25S. Abalmaz1.8071111113R. Gnoevoy1.91117751WSep 8 · 18:55R. Gnoevoy1.911111113D. Derevynskyi1.808980LSep 8 · 16:55V. Khamurda1.611311113R. Gnoevoy2.2011980WSep 8 · 14:55T. Ponomarenko2.38118951R. Gnoevoy1.5391111113
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