TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13128467
Played Sep 14Finished
Vitalii Khamurda
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117811116114––
Roman Gnoevoy
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:10 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeVitalii Khamurda to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Khamurda above · Roman Gnoevoy below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 69 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Vitalii Khamurda at 56.9%
69 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Khamurda 126–68 Roman Gnoevoy Roman Gnoevoy has won 68 of their 194 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 09:10What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Khamurda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
126-68 in 194
Khamurda
Correct
gap of 58 in 194, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khamurda 1616 vs Gnoevoy 1488
Khamurda
Correct
both rated, 128 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khamurda 80% vs Gnoevoy 0%
Khamurda
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khamurda 70% vs Gnoevoy 30%
Khamurda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Khamurda +4 · Gnoevoy -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Khamurda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gnoevoy form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhamurda 1.73 / Gnoevoy 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Khamurda)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13128467
Khamurda1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 95 of 177
Up 2–0, closes it98% 45 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it75% 59 of 79
Gnoevoy2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog47% won 88 of 186
Down 0–1, comes back24% 23 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back12% 7 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhamurda8wins
AwayGnoevoy2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKhamurda leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhamurda100%6 of 6
AwayGnoevoy50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khamurda6Gnoevoy4n = 10Khamurda took 6 of 10
S2Khamurda6Gnoevoy4n = 10Khamurda took 6 of 10
S3Khamurda4Gnoevoy6n = 10Gnoevoy took 6 of 10
S4Khamurda4Gnoevoy3n = 7Khamurda took 4 of 7
S5Khamurda5Gnoevoy0n = 5Khamurda took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhamurdaGnoevoyK − GBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.436.7+3.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhamurdaGnoevoyBasisWin rate · lifetime469 / 878 vs 405 / 81453.4%49.8%469 / 878 vs 405 / 814Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhamurdaKhamurda 1.73/Gnoevoy 2.00
Hit
What we said
56.9%
Khamurda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Khamurda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 01:55V. Khamurda53111376163R. Gnoevoy514111111142
WSep 8 · 16:55V. Khamurda351311113R. Gnoevoy2811980
LSep 8 · 24:25V. Khamurda35811971R. Gnoevoy4111811113
WSep 4 · 03:25V. Khamurda41117111113R. Gnoevoy4291131182
LSep 2 · 01:55V. Khamurda2341270R. Gnoevoy361114113
WAug 31 · 21:25V. Khamurda50711813113R. Gnoevoy42113111162
WAug 31 · 03:25V. Khamurda46111311113R. Gnoevoy39915961
WAug 28 · 13:05V. Khamurda331111113R. Gnoevoy198740
WAug 27 · 23:55V. Khamurda49811811113R. Gnoevoy3111411322
WAug 13 · 22:55V. Khamurda39113311113R. Gnoevoy3841111482
V. Khamurda10
WSep 11 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.73111376163R. Gnoevoy2.004111111142WSep 11 · 24:25V. Khamurda1.8011711113D. Derevynskyi1.91711791WSep 10 · 22:55V. Khamurda2.50111111113S. Abalmaz1.50561381WSep 10 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.83391111113T. Ponomarenko1.8311118562LSep 8 · 19:55V. Khamurda1.807770D. Derevynskyi1.911111113LSep 8 · 17:55T. Ponomarenko2.00111175113V. Khamurda1.7388111192WSep 8 · 16:55V. Khamurda1.611311113R. Gnoevoy2.2011980WSep 8 · 14:25V. Khamurda2.63111110113S. Abalmaz1.44671211LSep 8 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.831199141D. Derevynskyi1.8391111163WSep 8 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.731111113K. Hrynenko2.006980
R. Gnoevoy10
LSep 11 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.508590T. Ponomarenko2.501111113LSep 11 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.73111376163R. Gnoevoy2.004111111142LSep 11 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy1.919460S. Abalmaz1.801111113LSep 10 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy2.00910131162D. Derevynskyi1.731112115113LSep 8 · 20:25S. Abalmaz1.8071111113R. Gnoevoy1.91117751WSep 8 · 18:55R. Gnoevoy1.911111113D. Derevynskyi1.808980LSep 8 · 16:55V. Khamurda1.611311113R. Gnoevoy2.2011980WSep 8 · 14:55T. Ponomarenko2.38118951R. Gnoevoy1.5391111113LSep 8 · 13:55S. Skachenko1.8311115123R. Gnoevoy1.838611101WSep 8 · 04:25R. Gnoevoy1.801111117113S. Skachenko1.9113381192
Upcoming Matches
V. Khamurda
Sep 14 · 22:55V. Khamurda2.50S. Abalmaz1.50—Sep 15 · 24:25V. Khamurda1.83S. Skachenko1.83—Sep 15 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.83O. Naida1.83—Sep 15 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.91D. Derevynskyi1.80—Sep 15 · 21:05V. Khamurda1.80T. Ponomarenko1.91—Sep 16 · 01:05V. Khamurda1.83S. Skachenko1.83—Sep 16 · 03:35V. Khamurda2.50S. Abalmaz1.50—
R. Gnoevoy
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