TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105909
Played Sep 11Finished
Roman Gnoevoy
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811511911––––
Tymur Ponomarenko
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:05 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeRoman Gnoevoy to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Gnoevoy above · Tymur Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 55 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Roman Gnoevoy at 62.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Roman Gnoevoy 9–5 Tymur Ponomarenko Tymur Ponomarenko has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:05What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Gnoevoy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-5 in 14
Gnoevoy
Wrong
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gnoevoy 1505 vs Ponomarenko 1443
Gnoevoy
Wrong
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gnoevoy 20% vs Ponomarenko 60%
Ponomarenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gnoevoy 30% vs Ponomarenko 50%
Ponomarenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gnoevoy -4 · Ponomarenko +1
Gnoevoy
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Gnoevoy) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGnoevoy 1.50 / Ponomarenko 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Gnoevoy)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13105909
Gnoevoy1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite60% won 87 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it96% 44 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it75% 60 of 80
Ponomarenko2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 38 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back15% 9 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGnoevoy6wins
AwayPonomarenko4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGnoevoy leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGnoevoy80%4 of 5
AwayPonomarenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gnoevoy5Ponomarenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Gnoevoy7Ponomarenko3n = 10Gnoevoy took 7 of 10
S3Gnoevoy9Ponomarenko1n = 10Gnoevoy took 9 of 10
S4Gnoevoy2Ponomarenko5n = 7Ponomarenko took 5 of 7
S5Gnoevoy1Ponomarenko2n = 3Ponomarenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGnoevoyPonomarenkoG − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.535.1+3.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGnoevoyPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime407 / 815 vs 205 / 37749.9%54.4%407 / 815 vs 205 / 377Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GnoevoyGnoevoy 1.50/Ponomarenko 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Gnoevoy · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 14:55R. Gnoevoy—91111113T. Ponomarenko—118951
WSep 4 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy—1111113T. Ponomarenko—5680
WSep 2 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy—11118113T. Ponomarenko—741161
WSep 1 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy—1112113T. Ponomarenko—11070
WAug 30 · 22:55R. Gnoevoy—815116123T. Ponomarenko—1113811102
LAug 28 · 18:05R. Gnoevoy—471191T. Ponomarenko—11118113
LAug 14 · 02:55R. Gnoevoy—91111672T. Ponomarenko—119611113
WAug 11 · 20:25R. Gnoevoy—1111123T. Ponomarenko—45100
LAug 10 · 21:25R. Gnoevoy—2714111T. Ponomarenko—111112133
LAug 7 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy—111111522T. Ponomarenko—413611113
R. Gnoevoy10
LSep 11 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.73111376163R. Gnoevoy2.004111111142LSep 11 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy1.919460S. Abalmaz1.801111113LSep 10 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy2.00910131162D. Derevynskyi1.731112115113LSep 8 · 20:25S. Abalmaz1.8071111113R. Gnoevoy1.91117751WSep 8 · 18:55R. Gnoevoy1.911111113D. Derevynskyi1.808980LSep 8 · 16:55V. Khamurda1.611311113R. Gnoevoy2.2011980WSep 8 · 14:55T. Ponomarenko2.38118951R. Gnoevoy1.5391111113LSep 8 · 13:55S. Skachenko1.8311115123R. Gnoevoy1.838611101WSep 8 · 04:25R. Gnoevoy1.801111117113S. Skachenko1.9113381192LSep 8 · 02:25D. Derevynskyi1.801111113R. Gnoevoy1.919760
T. Ponomarenko10
WSep 11 · 02:55S. Abalmaz1.4481118582T. Ponomarenko2.631181611113LSep 10 · 23:25D. Derevynskyi1.731111133T. Ponomarenko2.0087110LSep 10 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.83391111113T. Ponomarenko1.8311118562WSep 8 · 19:25T. Ponomarenko2.38131114103S. Skachenko1.531561281WSep 8 · 17:55T. Ponomarenko2.00111175113V. Khamurda1.7388111192LSep 8 · 16:25T. Ponomarenko2.63113681S. Abalmaz1.4441111113LSep 8 · 14:55T. Ponomarenko2.38118951R. Gnoevoy1.5391111113LSep 8 · 13:25T. Ponomarenko2.00591251D. Derevynskyi1.73111110113WSep 4 · 03:55O. Naida1.5091131152T. Ponomarenko2.50117112113WSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113
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