TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105642
Played Sep 11Finished
Spartak Abalmaz
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111181816511811
Tymur Ponomarenko
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:23 and never touched — 68.9% is still 68.9%
Graded at full timeSpartak Abalmaz to win
68.9%
68.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSpartak Abalmaz above · Tymur Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 18-16
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 107 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Spartak Abalmaz at 68.9%
107 points played in total.
H2H Spartak Abalmaz 17–5 Tymur Ponomarenko Tymur Ponomarenko has won 5 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:23What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Abalmaz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-5 in 22
Abalmaz
Wrong
gap of 12 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Abalmaz 1610 vs Ponomarenko 1427
Abalmaz
Wrong
both rated, 183 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Abalmaz 80% vs Ponomarenko 40%
Abalmaz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Abalmaz 60% vs Ponomarenko 40%
Abalmaz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Abalmaz +1 · Ponomarenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Abalmaz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Abalmaz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAbalmaz 1.44 / Ponomarenko 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Abalmaz)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13105642
Abalmaz1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite59% won 177 of 299
Up 2–0, closes it95% 79 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it76% 128 of 168
Ponomarenko2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 38 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back15% 9 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAbalmaz7wins
AwayPonomarenko3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderAbalmaz leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAbalmaz100%5 of 5
AwayPonomarenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Abalmaz5Ponomarenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Abalmaz6Ponomarenko4n = 10Abalmaz took 6 of 10
S3Abalmaz8Ponomarenko2n = 10Abalmaz took 8 of 10
S4Abalmaz4Ponomarenko2n = 6Abalmaz took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAbalmazPonomarenkoA − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.033.7+5.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAbalmazPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime418 / 824 vs 204 / 37650.7%54.3%418 / 824 vs 204 / 376Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AbalmazAbalmaz 1.44/Ponomarenko 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.9%
Abalmaz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 16:25S. Abalmaz—41111113T. Ponomarenko—113681
WSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz—1111143T. Ponomarenko—55120
LSep 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz—71180T. Ponomarenko—1113113
WSep 1 · 02:25S. Abalmaz—1111113T. Ponomarenko—7690
WAug 31 · 04:25S. Abalmaz—13118113T. Ponomarenko—1191191
LAug 28 · 19:05S. Abalmaz—8111181T. Ponomarenko—11134113
WAug 26 · 01:05S. Abalmaz—9111111123T. Ponomarenko—111329102
LAug 21 · 02:55S. Abalmaz—911119102T. Ponomarenko—117311123
WAug 19 · 02:35S. Abalmaz—1211113T. Ponomarenko—10770
WAug 18 · 24:25S. Abalmaz—11511123T. Ponomarenko—8119101
S. Abalmaz10
WSep 11 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy1.919460S. Abalmaz1.801111113LSep 10 · 22:55V. Khamurda2.50111111113S. Abalmaz1.50561381WSep 8 · 20:25S. Abalmaz1.8071111113R. Gnoevoy1.91117751WSep 8 · 18:25S. Skachenko1.838790S. Abalmaz1.831111113WSep 8 · 16:25T. Ponomarenko2.63113681S. Abalmaz1.4441111113WSep 8 · 15:25S. Abalmaz2.1091111113D. Derevynskyi1.67112341LSep 8 · 14:25V. Khamurda2.63111110113S. Abalmaz1.44671211LSep 8 · 03:55K. Hrynenko2.001112310133S. Abalmaz1.737101112112LSep 8 · 02:55S. Skachenko1.83126114123S. Abalmaz1.831011711102WSep 8 · 01:25D. Derevynskyi1.6111971192S. Abalmaz2.20211115113
T. Ponomarenko10
WSep 11 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.508590T. Ponomarenko2.501111113LSep 10 · 23:25D. Derevynskyi1.731111133T. Ponomarenko2.0087110LSep 10 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.83391111113T. Ponomarenko1.8311118562WSep 8 · 19:25T. Ponomarenko2.38131114103S. Skachenko1.531561281WSep 8 · 17:55T. Ponomarenko2.00111175113V. Khamurda1.7388111192LSep 8 · 16:25T. Ponomarenko2.63113681S. Abalmaz1.4441111113LSep 8 · 14:55T. Ponomarenko2.38118951R. Gnoevoy1.5391111113LSep 8 · 13:25T. Ponomarenko2.00591251D. Derevynskyi1.73111110113WSep 4 · 03:55O. Naida1.5091131152T. Ponomarenko2.50117112113WSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113
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