TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13125632
Played Sep 13Finished
Jakub Nemecek Snr
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811911119116117
Petr Maly
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingJakub Nemecek Snr above · Petr Maly below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 94 set 5, 11-7
94 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Nemecek Snr 6–8 Petr Maly Jakub Nemecek Snr has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Maly beat Snr 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Maly)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snr form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnr 2.20 / Maly 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Maly)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13125632
Snr2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 8 of 16
Down 0–1, comes back25% 2 of 8
Maly1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite53% won 58 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it89% 25 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it67% 42 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSnr5wins
AwayMaly5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSnr80%4 of 5
AwayMaly80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Snr5Maly5n = 10split evenly
S2Snr4Maly6n = 10Maly took 6 of 10
S3Snr4Maly6n = 10Maly took 6 of 10
S4Snr5Maly4n = 9Snr took 5 of 9
S5Snr3Maly2n = 5Snr took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSnrMalyS − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.544.8−3.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnrMalyBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 140 vs 237 / 44340%53.5%56 / 140 vs 237 / 443Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MalySnr 2.20/Maly 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Maly · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Snr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 13:15J. Snr391361191P. Maly4415117113
LSep 11 · 18:00J. Snr4091151142P. Maly46116117113
WMar 5 · 20:00J. Snr45111110133P. Maly408912111
WDec 7 · 15:00J. Snr5811101111153P. Maly54812813132
LNov 9 · 14:45J. Snr3761011101P. Maly4211127123
LOct 27 · 19:45J. Snr46115121172P. Maly50711147113
WSep 14 · 14:45J. Snr47141118133P. Maly541291111112
LAug 16 · 15:30J. Snr2679100P. Maly341111123
WAug 3 · 17:05J. Snr39111511113P. Maly4991111992
WAug 3 · 16:00J. Snr3851112103P. Maly351161081
J. Snr10
LSep 13 · 15:45D. Brichacek1.40611117113J. Snr2.7511561162LSep 13 · 14:45T. Hybl1.5091111123J. Snr2.501168101LSep 13 · 13:15P. Maly1.6115117113J. Snr2.201361191WSep 11 · 20:38V. Herrmann1.5385111262J. Snr2.381111610113LSep 11 · 19:30L. Krasl1.9121511123J. Snr1.8011135101LSep 11 · 19:00J. Snr2.00117831V. Herrmann1.7361111113LSep 11 · 18:00J. Snr2.2091151142P. Maly1.61116117113LSep 3 · 21:13S. Kalensky1.7361111113J. Snr2.00118871WSep 3 · 19:30J. Snr2.101211119113M. Cizek1.6714751172LSep 3 · 18:30J. Snr2.0061111242S. Kalensky1.73117811113
P. Maly10
LSep 13 · 15:15P. Maly2.004270T. Hybl1.731111113LSep 13 · 14:15P. Maly2.0011117572D. Brichacek1.73591111113WSep 13 · 13:15P. Maly1.6115117113J. Snr2.201361191WSep 11 · 21:08P. Maly1.571112113L. Krasl2.2591070WSep 11 · 20:00P. Maly1.67119113113V. Herrmann2.1091181192WSep 11 · 18:30L. Krasl1.914115111P. Maly1.8011911133WSep 11 · 18:00J. Snr2.2091151142P. Maly1.61116117113LSep 8 · 20:43J. Simek1.539171110143P. Maly2.381115412122WSep 8 · 19:15P. Maly2.001111113R. Merkl1.739770LSep 8 · 18:15P. Maly2.251211512102J. Simek1.571431110123
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