TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13125585
Played Sep 14Finished
Sven Happek
Home
8.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117611116119––
Enio Mendes
Away
1.05
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:14 and never touched — 89.0% is still 89.0%
Graded at full timeEnio Mendes to win
89.0%
89.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSven Happek above · Enio Mendes below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 72 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Enio Mendes at 89.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Sven Happek 0–2 Enio Mendes Sven Happek has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:14What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.05 (89%)
Mendes
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Happek 1187 vs Mendes 1898
Mendes
Wrong
both rated, 712 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Happek 20% vs Mendes 80%
Mendes
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Happek 10% vs Mendes 80%
Mendes
Wrong
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Happek -2 · Mendes +4
Mendes
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% — Strong (leans Mendes)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mendes form (80%) is below what odds imply (95%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHappek 8.50 / Mendes 1.05
Signal prob.11% / 89%
Edge (Mendes)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13125585
Happek8.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog5% won 2 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back3% 1 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 32
Mendes1.05
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite84% won 21 of 25
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeHappek0wins
AwayMendes2wins
Mendes leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away2
These 2 meetings
MetricHappekMendesH − MBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match17.534.0−16.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHappekMendesBasisWin rate · lifetime44 / 160 vs 40 / 5227.5%76.9%44 / 160 vs 40 / 52Avg sets wonper match1.42.5per matchAvg pointsper match31.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MendesHappek 8.50/Mendes 1.05
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
89%
Mendes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Happek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LJul 6 · 11:30S. Happek185580E. Mendes331111113
LJun 8 · 17:30S. Happek1741120E. Mendes351113113
S. Happek10
LSep 14 · 07:30S. Happek2.058111261T. Saltzer1.6811914113LAug 7 · 07:30D. Zech1.831111113S. Happek1.839270WAug 6 · 17:30S. Happek1.803111110113T. Freund1.9111631272LAug 6 · 16:00A. Mino1.0481111113S. Happek9.00115431LAug 6 · 14:00K. Fadeev1.071111113S. Happek7.507970LAug 6 · 12:00S. Happek4.005940K. Zimmermann1.221111113LAug 6 · 09:30S. Happek—771161T. Saltzer—11116113LAug 6 · 08:00S. Happek2.50681181L. Kraus1.5011119113LJul 28 · 08:30S. Happek8.503570O. Kosolosky1.051111113LJul 28 · 06:30S. Happek1.201011101192K. Moosmann4.33125122113
E. Mendes10
WSep 14 · 07:00S. Almeida2.10145391E. Mendes1.65121111113WJul 7 · 11:00D. Rinderer1.67119151152E. Mendes2.10711177113WJul 7 · 09:45T. Saltzer3.855116101E. Mendes1.2011711123WJul 7 · 08:30L. Kraus6.5076100E. Mendes1.101111123LJul 6 · 17:00S. Carrillo6.5012111310123E. Mendes1.101491112102WJul 6 · 15:30E. Mendes1.6711811113K. Fadeev2.10711821WJul 6 · 13:00E. Mendes—1111113T. Saltzer—4470WJul 6 · 11:30S. Happek7.005580E. Mendes1.081111113WJul 6 · 09:30C. Schmitt10.5011196872E. Mendes1.028171111113LJul 6 · 07:30D. Rinderer1.731111113E. Mendes2.009990
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