TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122055
Played Sep 14Finished
Serhii Rak
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
111116711118119
Denys Pesternikov
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:38 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Rak above · Denys Pesternikov below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 86 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 63.3%
86 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Rak 50–83 Denys Pesternikov Serhii Rak has won 50 of their 133 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:38What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Pesternikov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
50-83 in 133
Pesternikov
Wrong
gap of 33 in 133, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1852 vs Pesternikov 1922
Pesternikov
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 80% vs Pesternikov 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 90% vs Pesternikov 40%
Rak
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak +4 · Pesternikov +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Pesternikov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesternikov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 2.50 / Pesternikov 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Pesternikov)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13122055
Rak2.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog28% won 35 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back9% 7 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 49
Pesternikov1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 214 of 311
Up 2–0, closes it95% 120 of 127
Up 1–0, closes it85% 172 of 202
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRak0wins
AwayPesternikov10wins
Pesternikov leads 10–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRakn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayPesternikov100%9 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak1Pesternikov9n = 10Pesternikov took 9 of 10
S2Rak3Pesternikov7n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S3Rak3Pesternikov7n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S4Rak0Pesternikov7n = 7Pesternikov took 7 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away770%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricRakPesternikovR − PBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match25.838.6−12.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakPesternikovBasisWin rate · lifetime508 / 919 vs 588 / 110055.3%53.5%508 / 919 vs 588 / 1100Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovRak 2.50/Pesternikov 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.3%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 07:05S. Rak30111991D. Pesternikov4211911113
LAug 21 · 02:00S. Rak2071030D. Pesternikov341112113
LAug 18 · 05:35S. Rak25631151D. Pesternikov4011117113
LAug 17 · 13:05S. Rak2788110D. Pesternikov351111133
LAug 17 · 24:30S. Rak285112101D. Pesternikov4011611123
LAug 13 · 20:00S. Rak23421161D. Pesternikov4111118113
LAug 11 · 05:35S. Rak206770D. Pesternikov331111113
LAug 10 · 13:05S. Rak24211921D. Pesternikov4011711113
LAug 9 · 20:00S. Rak34118871D. Pesternikov4071111113
LAug 7 · 24:30S. Rak27441181D. Pesternikov4111118113
S. Rak10
LSep 14 · 02:00S. Rak1.50791141I. Kozachuk2.5011119113WSep 13 · 23:00S. Rak1.731111113D. Shcherbak2.005890WSep 13 · 21:30S. Rak1.33111111113R. Lazebnyi3.25713461WSep 13 · 20:00S. Rak3.4071111113O. Bindas1.30117681WSep 11 · 02:00S. Rak1.571111113I. Kozachuk2.256730LSep 11 · 24:30S. Rak1.30101070N. Kovalchuk3.401212113WSep 10 · 23:00S. Rak1.6781211113D. Shcherbak2.101110481WSep 10 · 21:30S. Rak1.441161112113I. Romaniak2.6391171492WSep 10 · 20:00S. Rak1.3051112113R. Haiseniuk3.401161071WSep 8 · 11:25S. Rak1.301112113O. Hura3.4081060
D. Pesternikov10
LSep 14 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.83671181O. Bindas1.8311115113WSep 13 · 23:30D. Pesternikov1.361111113R. Lazebnyi3.006390WSep 13 · 22:30I. Kozachuk2.2012960D. Pesternikov1.611411113WSep 13 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.281111113D. Shcherbak3.506780LSep 10 · 17:24B. Kohut1.6711117113D. Pesternikov2.10791191WSep 10 · 16:25D. Pesternikov2.251111113O. Bondarchuk1.576640LSep 10 · 15:25D. Pesternikov4.501117671A. Molochko1.1761911113LSep 10 · 13:55D. Pesternikov5.50116761N. Danyliuk1.1381111113LSep 10 · 12:55D. Pesternikov1.8098121172B. Kohut1.911111107113LSep 8 · 10:55D. Pesternikov1.337380N. Kovalchuk3.251111113
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