TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121799
Played Sep 14Finished
Serhii Rak
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711911119411––
Ivan Kozachuk
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Rak above · Ivan Kozachuk below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 73 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Serhii Rak at 63.7%
73 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Rak 85–59 Ivan Kozachuk Ivan Kozachuk has won 59 of their 144 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:48What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Rak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
85-59 in 144
Rak
Wrong
gap of 26 in 144, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1852 vs Kozachuk 1766
Rak
Wrong
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 100% vs Kozachuk 60%
Rak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 90% vs Kozachuk 60%
Rak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak +5 · Kozachuk +2
Rak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Rak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozachuk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 1.50 / Kozachuk 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Rak)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13121799
Rak1.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 265 of 408
Up 2–0, closes it92% 127 of 138
Up 1–0, closes it82% 183 of 223
Kozachuk2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 94 of 241
Down 0–1, comes back21% 26 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRak8wins
AwayKozachuk2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRak leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRak83.3%5 of 6
AwayKozachuk25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak6Kozachuk4n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S2Rak8Kozachuk2n = 10Rak took 8 of 10
S3Rak6Kozachuk4n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S4Rak6Kozachuk2n = 8Rak took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRakKozachukR − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.431.5+7.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakKozachukBasisWin rate · lifetime508 / 919 vs 545 / 109455.3%49.8%508 / 919 vs 545 / 1094Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakRak 1.50/Kozachuk 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kozachuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 02:00S. Rak331111113I. Kozachuk166730
WSep 8 · 09:25S. Rak3851111113I. Kozachuk31117941
WSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak501111107113I. Kozachuk4595121182
WSep 4 · 02:00S. Rak4291111113I. Kozachuk27117361
WSep 1 · 05:55S. Rak4011117113I. Kozachuk32881151
LAug 31 · 16:55S. Rak36811981I. Kozachuk3711411113
WAug 25 · 09:25S. Rak331111113I. Kozachuk207670
WAug 24 · 16:55S. Rak4312911113I. Kozachuk331011481
LAug 18 · 09:35S. Rak4011931162I. Kozachuk44411117113
WAug 17 · 17:05S. Rak3961111113I. Kozachuk30117841
S. Rak10
WSep 14 · 24:30S. Rak2.50111711113D. Pesternikov1.5011611892WSep 13 · 23:00S. Rak1.731111113D. Shcherbak2.005890WSep 13 · 21:30S. Rak1.33111111113R. Lazebnyi3.25713461WSep 13 · 20:00S. Rak3.4071111113O. Bindas1.30117681WSep 11 · 02:00S. Rak1.571111113I. Kozachuk2.256730LSep 11 · 24:30S. Rak1.30101070N. Kovalchuk3.401212113WSep 10 · 23:00S. Rak1.6781211113D. Shcherbak2.101110481WSep 10 · 21:30S. Rak1.441161112113I. Romaniak2.6391171492WSep 10 · 20:00S. Rak1.3051112113R. Haiseniuk3.401161071WSep 8 · 11:25S. Rak1.301112113O. Hura3.4081060
I. Kozachuk10
WSep 14 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.8011911113D. Shcherbak1.91311861WSep 14 · 24:00I. Kozachuk2.501111113O. Bindas1.509560LSep 13 · 22:30I. Kozachuk2.2012960D. Pesternikov1.611411113WSep 13 · 20:30I. Kozachuk1.611114123R. Lazebnyi2.20612100LSep 11 · 02:00S. Rak1.571111113I. Kozachuk2.256730LSep 11 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.8011911962D. Shcherbak1.91611411113WSep 11 · 24:00I. Kozachuk1.361111113R. Haiseniuk3.009790WSep 10 · 22:30I. Kozachuk1.911211113N. Kovalchuk1.8010380WSep 10 · 20:30I. Kozachuk1.731411123I. Romaniak2.00129100LSep 8 · 10:25I. Romaniak2.1011116113I. Kozachuk1.67871181
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