TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121914
Played Sep 13Finished
Oleksandr Zhurba
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911117811911––
Serhii Hohenko
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:12 and never touched — 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Zhurba to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Zhurba above · Serhii Hohenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 77 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Oleksandr Zhurba at 79.4%
77 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Zhurba 11–1 Serhii Hohenko Serhii Hohenko has won 1 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:12What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Zhurba
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-1 in 12
Zhurba
Wrong
gap of 10 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zhurba 1974 vs Hohenko 1780
Zhurba
Wrong
both rated, 194 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zhurba 80% vs Hohenko 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zhurba 80% vs Hohenko 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zhurba +4 · Hohenko +2
Zhurba
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Zhurba) · live re-read · sealed at 79% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hohenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZhurba 1.25 / Hohenko 3.75
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Zhurba)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13121914
Zhurba1.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 173 of 244
Up 2–0, closes it98% 106 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it87% 138 of 159
Hohenko3.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog21% won 3 of 14
Down 0–1, comes back20% 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZhurba9wins
AwayHohenko1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderZhurba leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZhurba87.5%7 of 8
AwayHohenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zhurba8Hohenko2n = 10Zhurba took 8 of 10
S2Zhurba5Hohenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Zhurba8Hohenko2n = 10Zhurba took 8 of 10
S4Zhurba5Hohenko3n = 8Zhurba took 5 of 8
S5Zhurba3Hohenko1n = 4Zhurba took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZhurbaHohenkoZ − HBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.134.6+7.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZhurbaHohenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime469 / 715 vs 31 / 5765.6%54.4%469 / 715 vs 31 / 57Avg sets wonper match2.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZhurbaZhurba 1.25/Hohenko 3.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
81.3%
Zhurba · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hohenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 05:30O. Zhurba331111113S. Hohenko193970
LAug 30 · 08:00O. Zhurba4211571182S. Hohenko49811118113
WAug 30 · 07:00O. Zhurba331111113S. Hohenko206680
WAug 29 · 15:00O. Zhurba48111367113S. Hohenko42711111122
WAug 29 · 14:00O. Zhurba3611411103S. Hohenko26911331
WAug 16 · 10:00O. Zhurba511161112113S. Hohenko4871181482
WAug 16 · 05:00O. Zhurba43111011113S. Hohenko31512591
WAug 15 · 14:00O. Zhurba4181111113S. Hohenko28117461
WAug 2 · 09:00O. Zhurba48119116113S. Hohenko4681171192
WAug 2 · 05:30O. Zhurba46111311113S. Hohenko371311491
O. Zhurba10
WSep 13 · 08:00D. Neborak4.5011411972O. Zhurba1.17911611113WSep 13 · 07:00O. Zhurba1.17111111113D. Neborak4.50136271WSep 13 · 05:30S. Hohenko3.503970O. Zhurba1.281111113WSep 13 · 05:00O. Shkurupii3.50451161O. Zhurba1.2811117113LSep 12 · 17:37D. Neborak4.501171311113O. Zhurba1.1771115782LSep 12 · 16:30O. Zhurba1.22117691S. Hohenko4.004111192WSep 12 · 15:30O. Zhurba1.171111113D. Neborak4.507750WSep 12 · 14:00O. Zhurba1.301111113O. Shkurupii3.406660WSep 12 · 13:00O. Zhurba1.30471111113A. Tur3.4011115742WAug 30 · 10:00O. Zhurba1.331111113O. Shkurupii3.255380
S. Hohenko10
WSep 13 · 07:30O. Shkurupii2.508311131S. Hohenko1.5011119153WSep 13 · 06:30S. Hohenko1.501191110113O. Shkurupii2.5061171252LSep 13 · 05:30S. Hohenko3.503970O. Zhurba1.281111113WSep 13 · 04:30S. Hohenko1.5011113113D. Neborak2.50451151WSep 12 · 16:30O. Zhurba1.22117691S. Hohenko4.004111192LSep 12 · 15:00S. Hohenko1.445711101O. Shkurupii2.6311114123WAug 30 · 09:30S. Hohenko1.2511117113D. Neborak3.75501161WAug 30 · 08:30S. Hohenko1.501211123O. Shkurupii2.50107100WAug 30 · 08:00S. Hohenko3.50811118113O. Zhurba1.2811571182LAug 30 · 07:00O. Zhurba1.281111113S. Hohenko3.506680
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