TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121881
Played Sep 13Finished
Oleksandr Shkurupii
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8113111191315––
Serhii Hohenko
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:58 and never touched — 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeSerhii Hohenko to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Shkurupii above · Serhii Hohenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 13-15
Point 81 set 4, 13-15 — our read held Serhii Hohenko at 65.3%
81 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Shkurupii 6–9 Serhii Hohenko Oleksandr Shkurupii has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Hohenko beat Shkurupii 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:58What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Hohenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-9 in 15
Hohenko
Correct
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shkurupii 1608 vs Hohenko 1780
Hohenko
Correct
both rated, 173 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shkurupii 0% vs Hohenko 60%
Hohenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shkurupii 10% vs Hohenko 70%
Hohenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shkurupii -5 · Hohenko +1
Shkurupii
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Hohenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shkurupii form (0%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShkurupii 2.50 / Hohenko 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Hohenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13121881
Shkurupii2.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 32 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back8% 5 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 50
Hohenko1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 22 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShkurupii3wins
AwayHohenko7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderHohenko leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShkurupii100%3 of 3
AwayHohenko100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shkurupii3Hohenko7n = 10Hohenko took 7 of 10
S2Shkurupii5Hohenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Shkurupii2Hohenko8n = 10Hohenko took 8 of 10
S4Shkurupii4Hohenko3n = 7Shkurupii took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricShkurupiiHohenkoS − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.539.7−5.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShkurupiiHohenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime358 / 742 vs 31 / 5748.3%54.4%358 / 742 vs 31 / 57Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HohenkoShkurupii 2.50/Hohenko 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Hohenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hohenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 07:30O. Shkurupii358311131S. Hohenko4611119153
LSep 13 · 06:30O. Shkurupii4161171252S. Hohenko521191110113
WSep 12 · 15:00O. Shkurupii3811114123S. Hohenko335711101
LAug 30 · 08:30O. Shkurupii27107100S. Hohenko351211123
LAug 30 · 06:00O. Shkurupii227780S. Hohenko331111113
WAug 29 · 16:00O. Shkurupii44111110123S. Hohenko333812101
LAug 29 · 13:30O. Shkurupii24113100S. Hohenko361311123
WAug 16 · 08:30O. Shkurupii4011513113S. Hohenko377111181
LAug 16 · 06:00O. Shkurupii4413131081S. Hohenko49151112113
LAug 15 · 16:00O. Shkurupii30512851S. Hohenko43111011113
O. Shkurupii10
LSep 13 · 06:30S. Hohenko1.501191110113O. Shkurupii2.5061171252LSep 13 · 06:00O. Shkurupii1.61119101142D. Neborak2.20811123113LSep 13 · 05:00O. Shkurupii3.50451161O. Zhurba1.2811117113LSep 12 · 17:21A. Tur2.6396111363O. Shkurupii1.44111191132LSep 12 · 16:00O. Shkurupii1.73851151A. Tur2.0011118113WSep 12 · 15:00S. Hohenko1.445711101O. Shkurupii2.6311114123LSep 12 · 14:00O. Zhurba1.301111113O. Shkurupii3.406660LSep 12 · 12:30D. Neborak2.251111123O. Shkurupii1.5774110LAug 30 · 10:00O. Zhurba1.331111113O. Shkurupii3.255380LAug 30 · 08:30S. Hohenko1.501211123O. Shkurupii2.50107100
S. Hohenko10
WSep 13 · 06:30S. Hohenko1.501191110113O. Shkurupii2.5061171252LSep 13 · 05:30S. Hohenko3.503970O. Zhurba1.281111113WSep 13 · 04:30S. Hohenko1.5011113113D. Neborak2.50451151WSep 12 · 16:30O. Zhurba1.22117691S. Hohenko4.004111192LSep 12 · 15:00S. Hohenko1.445711101O. Shkurupii2.6311114123WAug 30 · 09:30S. Hohenko1.2511117113D. Neborak3.75501161WAug 30 · 08:30S. Hohenko1.501211123O. Shkurupii2.50107100WAug 30 · 08:00S. Hohenko3.50811118113O. Zhurba1.2811571182LAug 30 · 07:00O. Zhurba1.281111113S. Hohenko3.506680WAug 30 · 06:00O. Shkurupii2.387780S. Hohenko1.531111113
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