TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121778
Played Sep 13Finished
Dmytro Neborak
Home
4.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119411116911711
Oleksandr Zhurba
Away
1.17
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:54 and never touched — 85.6% is still 85.6%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Zhurba to win
85.6%
85.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Neborak above · Oleksandr Zhurba below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 90 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Oleksandr Zhurba at 85.6%
90 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Neborak 28–122 Oleksandr Zhurba Dmytro Neborak has won 28 of their 150 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Zhurba beat Neborak 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:54What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Zhurba
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-122 in 150
Zhurba
Correct
gap of 94 in 150, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neborak 1698 vs Zhurba 1970
Zhurba
Correct
both rated, 272 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neborak 40% vs Zhurba 60%
Zhurba
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neborak 60% vs Zhurba 80%
Zhurba
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Neborak -1 · Zhurba +3
Zhurba
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Zhurba)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zhurba form (60%) is below what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeborak 4.50 / Zhurba 1.17
Signal prob.14% / 86%
Edge (Zhurba)+6.2pp
Setka Cup · #13121778
Neborak4.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 113 of 318
Down 0–1, comes back16% 29 of 186
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 117
Zhurba1.17
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 173 of 244
Up 2–0, closes it98% 106 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it87% 138 of 159
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeborak2wins
AwayZhurba8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderZhurba leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeborak40%2 of 5
AwayZhurba100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neborak5Zhurba5n = 10split evenly
S2Neborak3Zhurba7n = 10Zhurba took 7 of 10
S3Neborak0Zhurba10n = 10Zhurba took 10 of 10
S4Neborak2Zhurba5n = 7Zhurba took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeborakZhurbaN − ZBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match31.139.2−8.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeborakZhurbaBasisWin rate · lifetime304 / 836 vs 468 / 71436.4%65.6%304 / 836 vs 468 / 714Avg sets wonper match1.72.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZhurbaNeborak 4.50/Zhurba 1.17
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.6%
Zhurba · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zhurba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 07:00D. Neborak28136271O. Zhurba44111111113
WSep 12 · 17:37D. Neborak531171311113O. Zhurba4871115782
LSep 12 · 15:30D. Neborak197750O. Zhurba331111113
LAug 30 · 09:00D. Neborak371177121O. Zhurba4591111143
LAug 30 · 05:30D. Neborak187650O. Zhurba331111113
LAug 29 · 16:30D. Neborak366111091O. Zhurba3911512113
LAug 29 · 13:00D. Neborak29711561O. Zhurba4211911113
WAug 16 · 09:00D. Neborak3811115113O. Zhurba32771171
LAug 16 · 05:30D. Neborak1945100O. Zhurba341111123
LAug 15 · 16:30D. Neborak34119771O. Zhurba4291111113
D. Neborak10
LSep 13 · 08:30D. Neborak2.2091180O. Shkurupii1.611113113LSep 13 · 07:00O. Zhurba1.17111111113D. Neborak4.50136271WSep 13 · 06:00O. Shkurupii1.61119101142D. Neborak2.20811123113LSep 13 · 04:30S. Hohenko1.5011113113D. Neborak2.50451151WSep 12 · 17:37D. Neborak4.501171311113O. Zhurba1.1771115782LSep 12 · 15:30O. Zhurba1.171111113D. Neborak4.507750WSep 12 · 14:30D. Neborak2.2511112A. Tur1.57690WSep 12 · 12:30D. Neborak2.251111123O. Shkurupii1.5774110LSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123WSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992
O. Zhurba10
WSep 13 · 07:00O. Zhurba1.17111111113D. Neborak4.50136271WSep 13 · 05:30S. Hohenko3.503970O. Zhurba1.281111113WSep 13 · 05:00O. Shkurupii3.50451161O. Zhurba1.2811117113LSep 12 · 17:37D. Neborak4.501171311113O. Zhurba1.1771115782LSep 12 · 16:30O. Zhurba1.22117691S. Hohenko4.004111192WSep 12 · 15:30O. Zhurba1.171111113D. Neborak4.507750WSep 12 · 14:00O. Zhurba1.301111113O. Shkurupii3.406660WSep 12 · 13:00O. Zhurba1.30471111113A. Tur3.4011115742WAug 30 · 10:00O. Zhurba1.331111113O. Shkurupii3.255380WAug 30 · 09:00O. Zhurba1.1791111143D. Neborak4.501177121
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