TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121905
Played Sep 13Finished
Yurii Bondarenko
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121187111181514
Oleg Varlamov
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:12 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeYurii Bondarenko to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Bondarenko above · Oleg Varlamov below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 15-14
Point 107 set 5, 15-14 — our read held Yurii Bondarenko at 65.7%
107 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Bondarenko 4–2 Oleg Varlamov Oleg Varlamov has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:12What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Bondarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Bondarenko
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondarenko 1649 vs Varlamov 1575
Bondarenko
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarenko 80% vs Varlamov 40%
Bondarenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarenko 70% vs Varlamov 40%
Bondarenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarenko +1 · Varlamov -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Bondarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bondarenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarenko 1.44 / Varlamov 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Bondarenko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13121905
Bondarenko1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 18 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it77% 13 of 17
Varlamov2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 61 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back32% 22 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeBondarenko4wins
AwayVarlamov2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderBondarenko leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarenko66.7%2 of 3
AwayVarlamov33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondarenko3Varlamov3n = 6split evenly
S2Bondarenko4Varlamov2n = 6Bondarenko took 4 of 6
S3Bondarenko1Varlamov5n = 6Varlamov took 5 of 6
S4Bondarenko4Varlamov2n = 6Bondarenko took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricBondarenkoVarlamovB − VBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match37.838.0−0.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarenkoVarlamovBasisWin rate · lifetime55 / 102 vs 257 / 54153.9%47.5%55 / 102 vs 257 / 541Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BondarenkoBondarenko 1.44/Varlamov 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Bondarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Bondarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 26 · 14:10Y. Bondarenko3961111113O. Varlamov33117961
LAug 23 · 10:30Y. Bondarenko28118451O. Varlamov3851111113
WJul 12 · 07:00Y. Bondarenko40113411113O. Varlamov3811111782
LJul 5 · 07:00Y. Bondarenko29611661O. Varlamov3711411113
WFeb 1 · 08:30Y. Bondarenko49911711113O. Varlamov4111311972
WOct 5 · 05:00Y. Bondarenko4212126123O. Varlamov41101011101
Y. Bondarenko10
WSep 13 · 07:30Y. Bondarenko1.801111113A. Zozulia1.916860LSep 13 · 06:00Y. Bondarenko2.2011861192Y. Holoborodko1.61311116113WSep 13 · 04:30Y. Bondarenko1.83111017113A. Droshchynskyi1.837121531WSep 9 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.00101181162Y. Bondarenko1.73123117113WSep 9 · 15:40Y. Bondarenko1.8011137113M. Tiutiunnyk1.917111171LSep 9 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.739890O. Nadporozhskyi2.001111113WSep 9 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.531111113D. Habrelyan2.388730LSep 9 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko2.008116111Y. Holoborodko1.7311911133WSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113WSep 2 · 15:40Y. Bondarenko2.501111113Y. Holoborodko1.507870
O. Varlamov10
LSep 13 · 08:00O. Varlamov1.8068111182Y. Holoborodko1.91111186113LSep 13 · 07:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.61881612133O. Varlamov2.2011111410112WSep 13 · 05:30O. Varlamov1.91921112113A. Zozulia1.80111171062WSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193LSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:00A. Droshchynskyi1.4011511133O. Varlamov2.754111111WSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143LSep 6 · 05:00O. Kuzyshyn1.501111113O. Varlamov2.506750WSep 5 · 17:10O. Varlamov2.0081111113R. Sopivnyk1.73119361LSep 5 · 15:10O. Kuzyshyn1.571111113O. Varlamov2.259560
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