TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122573
Played Sep 13Finished
Maksym Tiutiunnyk
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811811161412101311
Oleg Varlamov
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:53 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeMaksym Tiutiunnyk to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Tiutiunnyk above · Oleg Varlamov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 16-14
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 114 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Maksym Tiutiunnyk at 58.9%
114 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Tiutiunnyk 29–22 Oleg Varlamov Oleg Varlamov has won 22 of their 51 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:53What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-22 in 51
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
gap of 7 in 51, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tiutiunnyk 1653 vs Varlamov 1586
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tiutiunnyk 100% vs Varlamov 60%
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tiutiunnyk 70% vs Varlamov 50%
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tiutiunnyk +5 · Varlamov +2
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Tiutiunnyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varlamov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTiutiunnyk 1.61 / Varlamov 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Tiutiunnyk)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13122573
Tiutiunnyk1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 62 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it80% 37 of 46
Varlamov2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 61 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back32% 22 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTiutiunnyk7wins
AwayVarlamov3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTiutiunnyk leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTiutiunnyk80%4 of 5
AwayVarlamov40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tiutiunnyk5Varlamov5n = 10split evenly
S2Tiutiunnyk4Varlamov6n = 10Varlamov took 6 of 10
S3Tiutiunnyk6Varlamov4n = 10Tiutiunnyk took 6 of 10
S4Tiutiunnyk5Varlamov1n = 6Tiutiunnyk took 5 of 6
S5Tiutiunnyk3Varlamov1n = 4Tiutiunnyk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTiutiunnykVarlamovT − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.137.4+1.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTiutiunnykVarlamovBasisWin rate · lifetime192 / 395 vs 257 / 54048.6%47.6%192 / 395 vs 257 / 540Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TiutiunnykTiutiunnyk 1.61/Varlamov 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Tiutiunnyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tiutiunnyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 07:00M. Tiutiunnyk57881612133O. Varlamov5711111410112
LAug 5 · 15:10M. Tiutiunnyk4611811792O. Varlamov43711311113
WAug 1 · 15:40M. Tiutiunnyk351112123O. Varlamov27710100
WJul 22 · 15:40M. Tiutiunnyk5711111311113O. Varlamov4113415542
WJul 16 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk4313811113O. Varlamov301111621
LJul 1 · 15:10M. Tiutiunnyk2173110O. Varlamov351111133
WJun 25 · 13:10M. Tiutiunnyk3521111113O. Varlamov34115991
WJun 18 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk51119811123O. Varlamov49811119102
LJun 11 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk132830O. Varlamov331111113
WMay 27 · 15:40M. Tiutiunnyk331111113O. Varlamov259880
M. Tiutiunnyk10
WSep 13 · 05:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.8011911113Y. Holoborodko1.91611931WSep 12 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk3.2511146113V. Maksuta1.339121191WSep 12 · 15:10Y. Skorobahatyi2.5011791172M. Tiutiunnyk1.50811114113WSep 12 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.8010111012113Y. Holoborodko1.91127121082WSep 12 · 13:10V. Merzlikin1.53116971M. Tiutiunnyk2.3891111113LSep 12 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk3.258280A. Droshchynskyi1.331111113WSep 10 · 17:40M. Tiutiunnyk1.911111113Y. Holoborodko1.809720WSep 10 · 15:40O. Kuzyshyn1.73811813122M. Tiutiunnyk2.001191111143LSep 10 · 13:40V. Maksuta1.3311116113M. Tiutiunnyk3.25441191LSep 10 · 12:40M. Tiutiunnyk2.381112481O. Zhyrnov1.5351411113
O. Varlamov10
WSep 13 · 05:30O. Varlamov1.91921112113A. Zozulia1.80111171062WSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193LSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:00A. Droshchynskyi1.4011511133O. Varlamov2.754111111WSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143LSep 6 · 05:00O. Kuzyshyn1.501111113O. Varlamov2.506750WSep 5 · 17:10O. Varlamov2.0081111113R. Sopivnyk1.73119361LSep 5 · 15:10O. Kuzyshyn1.571111113O. Varlamov2.259560WSep 5 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.80111142Y. Holoborodko1.919851LSep 5 · 13:10A. Droshchynskyi1.44111162O. Varlamov2.639860
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