TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116966
Played Sep 13Finished
Valentyn Lobas
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119112111––––
Kostiantyn Hrynenko
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:13 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeValentyn Lobas to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValentyn Lobas above · Kostiantyn Hrynenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-1
Point 45 set 3, 11-1 — our read held Valentyn Lobas at 59.4%
45 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Lobas 19–10 Kostiantyn Hrynenko Kostiantyn Hrynenko has won 10 of their 29 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:13What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Lobas
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-10 in 29
Lobas
Correct
gap of 9 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lobas 1690 vs Hrynenko 1608
Lobas
Correct
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lobas 80% vs Hrynenko 40%
Lobas
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lobas 80% vs Hrynenko 40%
Lobas
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lobas -1 · Hrynenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Lobas) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lobas form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLobas 1.53 / Hrynenko 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Lobas)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13116966
Lobas1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite64% won 113 of 176
Up 2–0, closes it94% 63 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it80% 93 of 116
Hrynenko2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 142 of 333
Down 0–1, comes back26% 48 of 182
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLobas5wins
AwayHrynenko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLobas57.1%4 of 7
AwayHrynenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lobas7Hrynenko3n = 10Lobas took 7 of 10
S2Lobas3Hrynenko7n = 10Hrynenko took 7 of 10
S3Lobas6Hrynenko4n = 10Lobas took 6 of 10
S4Lobas5Hrynenko3n = 8Lobas took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLobasHrynenkoL − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.835.9+0.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobasHrynenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime235 / 407 vs 424 / 90657.7%46.8%235 / 407 vs 424 / 906Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LobasLobas 1.53/Hrynenko 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Lobas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lobas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 02:05V. Lobas4211911113K. Hrynenko36711991
WSep 6 · 01:35V. Lobas3911113143K. Hrynenko354811121
WSep 5 · 02:05V. Lobas331111113K. Hrynenko218850
LAug 30 · 24:05V. Lobas334711111K. Hrynenko4011115133
WAug 29 · 02:05V. Lobas3611311113K. Hrynenko28511841
WAug 22 · 21:05V. Lobas3961111113K. Hrynenko26112851
LAug 21 · 22:05V. Lobas351111941K. Hrynenko3941311113
LAug 15 · 21:35V. Lobas46121081152K. Hrynenko491012115113
LAug 14 · 23:05V. Lobas491113111042K. Hrynenko52615812113
LAug 2 · 01:35V. Lobas163850K. Hrynenko331111113
V. Lobas10
LSep 13 · 24:05V. Lobas1.671110481Y. Krol2.1061211113WSep 12 · 22:35V. Lobas1.361411113O. Melashenko3.0012870WSep 12 · 21:05V. Lobas1.3612117113M. Marchuk3.001061131WSep 12 · 04:05V. Lobas1.831111113O. Gomilko1.839980WSep 12 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.38711991V. Lobas1.5311911113WSep 12 · 24:05Y. Krol2.1041111792V. Lobas1.67118311113WSep 11 · 23:05V. Lobas1.501111113O. Melashenko2.505440WSep 11 · 22:05D. Derevynskyi2.505970V. Lobas1.501111113LSep 6 · 03:05V. Lobas1.8310118121O. Gomilko1.8312711143WSep 6 · 01:35V. Lobas1.5311113143K. Hrynenko2.384811121
K. Hrynenko10
WSep 13 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.6111117113O. Melashenko2.20551171WSep 12 · 23:35O. Gomilko1.61311971K. Hrynenko2.2011311113LSep 12 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.108690Y. Krol1.671111113LSep 12 · 03:05Y. Krol1.6711614113K. Hrynenko2.106111281LSep 12 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.38711991V. Lobas1.5311911113WSep 12 · 01:05K. Hrynenko1.6161111113O. Melashenko2.20118241LSep 11 · 23:35K. Hrynenko2.50711791D. Derevynskyi1.5011711113LSep 11 · 21:35K. Hrynenko2.2511101051O. Gomilko1.5781212113LSep 9 · 20:25V. Kobets4.501111113K. Hrynenko1.179750LSep 6 · 01:35V. Lobas1.5311113143K. Hrynenko2.384811121
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