TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116773
Played Sep 12Finished
Maksym Mrykh
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118118––––
Oleksandr Zhyrnov
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:45 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeMaksym Mrykh to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Mrykh above · Oleksandr Zhyrnov below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 58 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Maksym Mrykh at 56.8%
58 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Mrykh 11–6 Oleksandr Zhyrnov Oleksandr Zhyrnov has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:45What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Mrykh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-6 in 17
Mrykh
Correct
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrykh 1652 vs Zhyrnov 1747
Zhyrnov
Wrong
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrykh 20% vs Zhyrnov 80%
Zhyrnov
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrykh 40% vs Zhyrnov 60%
Zhyrnov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrykh -2 · Zhyrnov +4
Zhyrnov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Mrykh) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zhyrnov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrykh 1.53 / Zhyrnov 2.38
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Mrykh)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13116773
Mrykh1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 58 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it76% 40 of 53
Zhyrnov2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 73 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back20% 19 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrykh7wins
AwayZhyrnov3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMrykh leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrykh85.7%6 of 7
AwayZhyrnov66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrykh7Zhyrnov3n = 10Mrykh took 7 of 10
S2Mrykh6Zhyrnov4n = 10Mrykh took 6 of 10
S3Mrykh4Zhyrnov6n = 10Zhyrnov took 6 of 10
S4Mrykh3Zhyrnov2n = 5Mrykh took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrykhZhyrnovM − ZBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.032.0+6.0per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrykhZhyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime219 / 477 vs 383 / 76945.9%49.8%219 / 477 vs 383 / 769Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MrykhMrykh 1.53/Zhyrnov 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.4%
Mrykh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mrykh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 06:20M. Mrykh—1111113O. Zhyrnov—9880
LSep 8 · 06:50M. Mrykh—116591O. Zhyrnov—41111113
WJul 26 · 09:35M. Mrykh—1112113O. Zhyrnov—81090
WJul 22 · 10:40M. Mrykh—11711123O. Zhyrnov—4118101
WJul 19 · 09:00M. Mrykh—11118113O. Zhyrnov—511171
LJul 16 · 16:40M. Mrykh—101180O. Zhyrnov—1213113
LJul 14 · 14:40M. Mrykh—12980O. Zhyrnov—1411113
WJul 9 · 15:10M. Mrykh—1112113O. Zhyrnov—41090
WJul 8 · 11:10M. Mrykh—1311811113O. Zhyrnov—15511562
WJul 2 · 15:10M. Mrykh—11111011113O. Zhyrnov—53121342
M. Mrykh10
LSep 11 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.0077100V. Savoliuk1.731111123LSep 11 · 09:50M. Mrykh1.80611111162O. Strutinskiy1.91119138113WSep 11 · 08:20M. Mrykh2.251171122M. Deineha1.57911921LSep 11 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.7389111172I. Nitchenko2.00111148113LSep 10 · 18:00I. Nitchenko2.201111113M. Mrykh1.618890LSep 10 · 17:00M. Mrykh2.005121051V. Savoliuk1.73111012113WSep 10 · 16:00M. Mrykh2.1011127113A. Derevianko1.676101181WSep 10 · 14:30M. Mrykh2.001311113O. Strutinskiy1.7311840LSep 10 · 12:30M. Mrykh2.00119891M. Deineha1.7381111113WSep 8 · 12:20M. Mrykh1.6111116113I. Nitchenko2.20981191
O. Zhyrnov10
WSep 12 · 07:20A. Zozulia3.2591171172O. Zhyrnov1.33117119113WSep 10 · 17:10A. Zozulia1.9110490O. Zhyrnov1.801211113WSep 10 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.6364110O. Zhyrnov1.441111133WSep 10 · 14:40O. Kuzyshyn2.206590O. Zhyrnov1.611111113WSep 10 · 12:40M. Tiutiunnyk2.381112481O. Zhyrnov1.5351411113LSep 10 · 10:40V. Maksuta1.83119159113O. Zhyrnov1.83811131192WSep 8 · 12:50O. Zhyrnov3.7515127113O. Strutinskiy1.2513101191LSep 8 · 10:50E. Hrytsenko1.73711116113O. Zhyrnov2.0011991192LSep 8 · 08:50A. Derevianko1.401111113O. Zhyrnov2.754650LSep 8 · 07:50O. Zhyrnov2.20111010101I. Nitchenko1.6171212123
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