TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111434
Played Sep 11Finished
Maksym Mrykh
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111191113118611
Oleksandr Strutinskiy
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaksym Mrykh to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Mrykh above · Oleksandr Strutinskiy below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 97 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Maksym Mrykh at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Mrykh 15–14 Oleksandr Strutinskiy Oleksandr Strutinskiy has won 14 of their 29 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:35What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mrykh
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-14 in 29
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrykh 1658 vs Strutinskiy 1665
Strutinskiy
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrykh 40% vs Strutinskiy 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrykh 40% vs Strutinskiy 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrykh +1 · Strutinskiy -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mrykh)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strutinskiy form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrykh 1.80 / Strutinskiy 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Mrykh)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13111434
Mrykh1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 58 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it76% 40 of 53
Strutinskiy1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 61 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back18% 18 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrykh5wins
AwayStrutinskiy5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrykh100%4 of 4
AwayStrutinskiy83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrykh4Strutinskiy6n = 10Strutinskiy took 6 of 10
S2Mrykh4Strutinskiy6n = 10Strutinskiy took 6 of 10
S3Mrykh3Strutinskiy7n = 10Strutinskiy took 7 of 10
S4Mrykh3Strutinskiy0n = 3Mrykh took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrykhStrutinskiyM − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match29.631.8−2.2per matchSweeps25−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrykhStrutinskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 474 vs 406 / 79346%51.2%218 / 474 vs 406 / 793Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MrykhMrykh 1.80/Strutinskiy 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mrykh · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Strutinskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 14:30M. Mrykh—1311113O. Strutinskiy—11840
LSep 8 · 09:20M. Mrykh—5670O. Strutinskiy—1111113
WSep 7 · 19:00M. Mrykh—1211113O. Strutinskiy—10430
WSep 1 · 09:50M. Mrykh—111410113O. Strutinskiy—6121271
WAug 21 · 10:50M. Mrykh—11411113O. Strutinskiy—711671
LAug 20 · 19:00M. Mrykh—33100O. Strutinskiy—1111123
LAug 18 · 09:50M. Mrykh—5880O. Strutinskiy—1111113
WAug 15 · 07:20M. Mrykh—1013611113O. Strutinskiy—121111442
LAug 6 · 17:44M. Mrykh—3570O. Strutinskiy—1111113
LAug 6 · 12:00M. Mrykh—91130O. Strutinskiy—1113113
M. Mrykh10
LSep 11 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.0077100V. Savoliuk1.731111123WSep 11 · 08:20M. Mrykh2.251171122M. Deineha1.57911921LSep 11 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.7389111172I. Nitchenko2.00111148113LSep 10 · 18:00I. Nitchenko2.201111113M. Mrykh1.618890LSep 10 · 17:00M. Mrykh2.005121051V. Savoliuk1.73111012113WSep 10 · 16:00M. Mrykh2.1011127113A. Derevianko1.676101181WSep 10 · 14:30M. Mrykh2.001311113O. Strutinskiy1.7311840LSep 10 · 12:30M. Mrykh2.00119891M. Deineha1.7381111113WSep 8 · 12:20M. Mrykh1.6111116113I. Nitchenko2.20981191LSep 8 · 10:20A. Derevianko1.6111312113M. Mrykh2.208111041
O. Strutinskiy10
WSep 11 · 12:20M. Deineha1.67113101162O. Strutinskiy2.10811126113WSep 11 · 11:20I. Nitchenko1.83911491O. Strutinskiy1.8311811113LSep 11 · 07:50V. Savoliuk1.3391111113O. Strutinskiy3.25117911WSep 11 · 05:50A. Derevianko1.8856111182O. Strutinskiy1.82111176113WSep 10 · 18:30O. Strutinskiy1.80111189113A. Derevianko1.9189111182LSep 10 · 16:30I. Nitchenko2.101113113O. Strutinskiy1.6781170LSep 10 · 15:30O. Strutinskiy1.91111197102M. Deineha1.80981111123LSep 10 · 14:30M. Mrykh2.001311113O. Strutinskiy1.7311840LSep 10 · 13:00O. Strutinskiy2.75211571V. Savoliuk1.4011511113LSep 8 · 12:50O. Zhyrnov3.7515127113O. Strutinskiy1.2513101191
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