TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13106816
Played Sep 10Finished
Oleksandr Strutinskiy
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118119811911118
Andrii Derevianko
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Strutinskiy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Strutinskiy above · Andrii Derevianko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 97 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Oleksandr Strutinskiy at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Strutinskiy 63–53 Andrii Derevianko Andrii Derevianko has won 53 of their 116 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:52What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Strutinskiy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
63-53 in 116
Strutinskiy
Correct
gap of 10 in 116, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strutinskiy 1653 vs Derevianko 1728
Derevianko
Wrong
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strutinskiy 0% vs Derevianko 40%
Derevianko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strutinskiy 30% vs Derevianko 60%
Derevianko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strutinskiy -5 · Derevianko -2
Strutinskiy
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Strutinskiy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevianko form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrutinskiy 1.80 / Derevianko 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Strutinskiy)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13106816
Strutinskiy1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 152 of 246
Up 2–0, closes it87% 76 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it74% 109 of 148
Derevianko1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 133 of 322
Down 0–1, comes back25% 46 of 187
Down 0–2, comes back11% 11 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrutinskiy6wins
AwayDerevianko4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStrutinskiy leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrutinskiy85.7%6 of 7
AwayDerevianko100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strutinskiy7Derevianko3n = 10Strutinskiy took 7 of 10
S2Strutinskiy4Derevianko6n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S3Strutinskiy3Derevianko7n = 10Derevianko took 7 of 10
S4Strutinskiy3Derevianko3n = 6split evenly
S5Strutinskiy3Derevianko1n = 4Strutinskiy took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrutinskiyDereviankoS − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.135.8+0.3per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrutinskiyDereviankoBasisWin rate · lifetime404 / 790 vs 460 / 96951.1%47.5%404 / 790 vs 460 / 969Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrutinskiyStrutinskiy 1.80/Derevianko 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Strutinskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Strutinskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 07:20O. Strutinskiy—131159113A. Derevianko—117111172
LSep 7 · 15:30O. Strutinskiy—10890A. Derevianko—1211113
LSep 4 · 09:50O. Strutinskiy—4620A. Derevianko—1111113
WSep 3 · 18:30O. Strutinskiy—11611113A. Derevianko—811591
WSep 1 · 07:50O. Strutinskiy—115211113A. Derevianko—71111372
WAug 31 · 13:00O. Strutinskiy—116127113A. Derevianko—911101132
LAug 28 · 09:50O. Strutinskiy—1111141232A. Derevianko—27161443
WAug 27 · 12:00O. Strutinskiy—1111113A. Derevianko—9430
LAug 25 · 12:20O. Strutinskiy—8860A. Derevianko—1111113
WAug 24 · 18:30O. Strutinskiy—11126123A. Derevianko—51011101
O. Strutinskiy10
LSep 10 · 16:30I. Nitchenko2.101113113O. Strutinskiy1.6781170LSep 10 · 15:30O. Strutinskiy1.91111197102M. Deineha1.80981111123LSep 10 · 14:30M. Mrykh2.001311113O. Strutinskiy1.7311840LSep 10 · 13:00O. Strutinskiy2.75211571V. Savoliuk1.4011511113LSep 8 · 12:50O. Zhyrnov3.7515127113O. Strutinskiy1.2513101191WSep 8 · 11:20O. Strutinskiy1.8311711113I. Nitchenko1.83711591WSep 8 · 09:20M. Mrykh1.805670O. Strutinskiy1.911111113WSep 8 · 07:20A. Derevianko2.00117111172O. Strutinskiy1.73131159113LSep 8 · 06:20E. Hrytsenko2.63611311113O. Strutinskiy1.4411411772LSep 7 · 19:00M. Mrykh2.001211113O. Strutinskiy1.7310430
A. Derevianko10
LSep 10 · 17:30M. Deineha1.83391111133A. Derevianko1.83111195112LSep 10 · 16:00M. Mrykh2.1011127113A. Derevianko1.676101181WSep 10 · 14:00V. Savoliuk1.57114881A. Derevianko2.2581111113LSep 10 · 12:00I. Nitchenko1.731111113A. Derevianko2.007790WSep 8 · 11:50A. Derevianko1.731111133E. Hrytsenko2.0065110WSep 8 · 10:20A. Derevianko1.6111312113M. Mrykh2.208111041WSep 8 · 08:50A. Derevianko1.401111113O. Zhyrnov2.754650LSep 8 · 07:20A. Derevianko2.00117111172O. Strutinskiy1.73131159113WSep 8 · 05:50A. Derevianko2.25513116113I. Nitchenko1.57111141182WSep 7 · 18:30A. Derevianko2.50711116113V. Savoliuk1.5011961162
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