TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105773
Played Sep 10Finished
Volodymyr Savoliuk
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118411811811––
Andrii Derevianko
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:43 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Savoliuk to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVolodymyr Savoliuk above · Andrii Derevianko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 72 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Volodymyr Savoliuk at 54.9%
72 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Savoliuk 29–20 Andrii Derevianko Andrii Derevianko has won 20 of their 49 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:43What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Savoliuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-20 in 49
Savoliuk
Wrong
gap of 9 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Savoliuk 1670 vs Derevianko 1745
Derevianko
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Savoliuk 20% vs Derevianko 60%
Derevianko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Savoliuk 20% vs Derevianko 70%
Derevianko
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Savoliuk +1 · Derevianko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Savoliuk) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevianko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSavoliuk 1.57 / Derevianko 2.25
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Savoliuk)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13105773
Savoliuk1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 119 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it92% 61 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it83% 85 of 102
Derevianko2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 133 of 322
Down 0–1, comes back25% 46 of 187
Down 0–2, comes back11% 11 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSavoliuk5wins
AwayDerevianko5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSavoliuk75%3 of 4
AwayDerevianko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Savoliuk4Derevianko6n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S2Savoliuk5Derevianko5n = 10split evenly
S3Savoliuk4Derevianko6n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S4Savoliuk7Derevianko1n = 8Savoliuk took 7 of 8
S5Savoliuk1Derevianko3n = 4Derevianko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSavoliukDereviankoS − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.740.6−0.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSavoliukDereviankoBasisWin rate · lifetime293 / 519 vs 459 / 96656.5%47.5%293 / 519 vs 459 / 966Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SavoliukSavoliuk 1.57/Derevianko 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Savoliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Derevianko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 18:30V. Savoliuk—11961162A. Derevianko—711116113
WSep 1 · 06:50V. Savoliuk—111112123A. Derevianko—6914101
LAug 31 · 18:30V. Savoliuk—81060A. Derevianko—1112113
WAug 28 · 11:50V. Savoliuk—12911113A. Derevianko—1011971
WAug 25 · 08:20V. Savoliuk—15115113A. Derevianko—1391131
WAug 24 · 14:30V. Savoliuk—81411113A. Derevianko—1112861
LAug 15 · 06:50V. Savoliuk—611811152A. Derevianko—115116173
LAug 14 · 18:00V. Savoliuk—4970A. Derevianko—1111113
LAug 11 · 06:20V. Savoliuk—41111642A. Derevianko—117611113
WAug 10 · 15:00V. Savoliuk—761112123A. Derevianko—1111610102
V. Savoliuk10
WSep 10 · 13:00O. Strutinskiy2.75211571V. Savoliuk1.4011511113LSep 8 · 16:40A. Hrabskyi1.5311511113V. Savoliuk2.38511881LSep 8 · 15:40V. Savoliuk1.83117117102A. Lievshin1.83911911123LSep 8 · 14:40V. Savoliuk2.50101191272V. Marushchak1.501261110113LSep 8 · 13:10V. Savoliuk2.3811661172O. Kolbasenko1.53611118113LSep 8 · 11:10V. Savoliuk3.5012118872A. Yurkov1.281081111113LSep 7 · 18:30A. Derevianko2.50711116113V. Savoliuk1.5011961162WSep 7 · 17:30O. Strutinskiy2.758750V. Savoliuk1.401111113LSep 7 · 16:00V. Maksuta2.631112123V. Savoliuk1.44410100LSep 7 · 14:00M. Mrykh2.005131011133V. Savoliuk1.731111127112
A. Derevianko10
LSep 10 · 12:00I. Nitchenko1.731111113A. Derevianko2.007790WSep 8 · 11:50A. Derevianko1.731111133E. Hrytsenko2.0065110WSep 8 · 10:20A. Derevianko1.6111312113M. Mrykh2.208111041WSep 8 · 08:50A. Derevianko1.401111113O. Zhyrnov2.754650LSep 8 · 07:20A. Derevianko2.00117111172O. Strutinskiy1.73131159113WSep 8 · 05:50A. Derevianko2.25513116113I. Nitchenko1.57111141182WSep 7 · 18:30A. Derevianko2.50711116113V. Savoliuk1.5011961162LSep 7 · 16:30E. Hrytsenko2.105101113143A. Derevianko1.671112611122WSep 7 · 15:30A. Derevianko2.001211113O. Strutinskiy1.7310890WSep 7 · 14:30V. Maksuta2.108890A. Derevianko1.671111113
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