TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105791
Played Sep 10Finished
Ivan Nitchenko
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117119––––
Andrii Derevianko
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:40 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeIvan Nitchenko to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Nitchenko above · Andrii Derevianko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 56 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Ivan Nitchenko at 60.5%
56 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Nitchenko 25–11 Andrii Derevianko Andrii Derevianko has won 11 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:40What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Nitchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-11 in 36
Nitchenko
Correct
gap of 14 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nitchenko 1555 vs Derevianko 1766
Derevianko
Wrong
both rated, 211 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nitchenko 20% vs Derevianko 80%
Derevianko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nitchenko 30% vs Derevianko 70%
Derevianko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nitchenko -3 · Derevianko +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Nitchenko) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevianko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNitchenko 1.73 / Derevianko 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Nitchenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13105791
Nitchenko1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 49 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it75% 36 of 48
Derevianko2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 133 of 322
Down 0–1, comes back25% 46 of 187
Down 0–2, comes back11% 11 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNitchenko7wins
AwayDerevianko3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNitchenko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNitchenko77.8%7 of 9
AwayDereviankon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nitchenko9Derevianko1n = 10Nitchenko took 9 of 10
S2Nitchenko4Derevianko6n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S3Nitchenko5Derevianko5n = 10split evenly
S4Nitchenko4Derevianko3n = 7Nitchenko took 4 of 7
S5Nitchenko2Derevianko1n = 3Nitchenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNitchenkoDereviankoN − DBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match38.637.2+1.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNitchenkoDereviankoBasisWin rate · lifetime187 / 387 vs 461 / 97048.3%47.5%187 / 387 vs 461 / 970Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NitchenkoNitchenko 1.73/Derevianko 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.3%
Nitchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Nitchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 05:50I. Nitchenko—111141182A. Derevianko—513116113
LSep 4 · 06:20I. Nitchenko—111110101A. Derevianko—51312123
WAug 21 · 11:20I. Nitchenko—113116113A. Derevianko—91181172
LAug 11 · 11:50I. Nitchenko—6940A. Derevianko—1111113
WAug 7 · 09:20I. Nitchenko—1112113A. Derevianko—81090
WAug 4 · 11:50I. Nitchenko—11414113A. Derevianko—8111271
WJul 31 · 10:50I. Nitchenko—1111133A. Derevianko—89110
WJul 28 · 08:20I. Nitchenko—11115113A. Derevianko—731171
WJul 21 · 11:50I. Nitchenko—115117123A. Derevianko—811611102
WJul 14 · 08:50I. Nitchenko—11119143A. Derevianko—9611121
I. Nitchenko10
LSep 8 · 12:20M. Mrykh1.6111116113I. Nitchenko2.20981191LSep 8 · 11:20O. Strutinskiy1.8311711113I. Nitchenko1.83711591LSep 8 · 09:50E. Hrytsenko1.73139711123I. Nitchenko2.001111111102WSep 8 · 07:50O. Zhyrnov2.20111010101I. Nitchenko1.6171212123LSep 8 · 05:50A. Derevianko2.25513116113I. Nitchenko1.57111141182LSep 4 · 12:50E. Hrytsenko1.8011119113I. Nitchenko1.91841131WSep 4 · 11:20I. Nitchenko2.101111113O. Strutinskiy1.676580WSep 4 · 09:20Y. Skorobahatyi2.507101271I. Nitchenko1.50111210113LSep 4 · 07:20Y. Opryshchenko1.6711614113I. Nitchenko2.102111261LSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.6351312123I. Nitchenko1.44111110101
A. Derevianko10
WSep 8 · 11:50A. Derevianko1.731111133E. Hrytsenko2.0065110WSep 8 · 10:20A. Derevianko1.6111312113M. Mrykh2.208111041WSep 8 · 08:50A. Derevianko1.401111113O. Zhyrnov2.754650LSep 8 · 07:20A. Derevianko2.00117111172O. Strutinskiy1.73131159113WSep 8 · 05:50A. Derevianko2.25513116113I. Nitchenko1.57111141182WSep 7 · 18:30A. Derevianko2.50711116113V. Savoliuk1.5011961162LSep 7 · 16:30E. Hrytsenko2.105101113143A. Derevianko1.671112611122WSep 7 · 15:30A. Derevianko2.001211113O. Strutinskiy1.7310890WSep 7 · 14:30V. Maksuta2.108890A. Derevianko1.671111113WSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.6351312123I. Nitchenko1.44111110101
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