TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105702
Played Sep 10Finished
Maksym Mrykh
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161210711118––
Andrii Derevianko
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:32 and never touched — 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeAndrii Derevianko to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Mrykh above · Andrii Derevianko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 76 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Andrii Derevianko at 58.2%
76 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Mrykh 40–91 Andrii Derevianko Maksym Mrykh has won 40 of their 131 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 18:32What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Derevianko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-91 in 131
Derevianko
Wrong
gap of 51 in 131, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrykh 1686 vs Derevianko 1754
Derevianko
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrykh 40% vs Derevianko 80%
Derevianko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrykh 30% vs Derevianko 70%
Derevianko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrykh +1 · Derevianko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Derevianko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevianko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrykh 2.10 / Derevianko 1.67
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Derevianko)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13105702
Mrykh2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 32 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back14% 5 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Derevianko1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 81 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it92% 35 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it84% 54 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrykh4wins
AwayDerevianko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDerevianko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrykh66.7%4 of 6
AwayDerevianko100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrykh6Derevianko4n = 10Mrykh took 6 of 10
S2Mrykh4Derevianko6n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S3Mrykh3Derevianko7n = 10Derevianko took 7 of 10
S4Mrykh1Derevianko7n = 8Derevianko took 7 of 8
S5Mrykh3Derevianko0n = 3Mrykh took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrykhDereviankoM − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.039.9−4.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrykhDereviankoBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 469 vs 460 / 96746.1%47.6%216 / 469 vs 460 / 967Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DereviankoMrykh 2.10/Derevianko 1.67
Miss
What we said
58.2%
Derevianko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mrykh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 10:20M. Mrykh—8111041A. Derevianko—11312113
WSep 7 · 13:00M. Mrykh—118511123A. Derevianko—711116102
LSep 1 · 10:50M. Mrykh—1131191A. Derevianko—71113113
WAug 21 · 09:50M. Mrykh—111239113A. Derevianko—810111182
LAug 18 · 11:50M. Mrykh—6111061A. Derevianko—11812113
WAug 15 · 10:20M. Mrykh—1111113A. Derevianko—7770
WAug 6 · 16:00M. Mrykh—129118113A. Derevianko—101181192
LAug 1 · 07:50M. Mrykh—851161A. Derevianko—11114113
LJul 28 · 11:08M. Mrykh—1150A. Derevianko—1111113
LJul 28 · 09:20M. Mrykh—1137151A. Derevianko—61111173
M. Mrykh10
LSep 10 · 17:00M. Mrykh2.005121051V. Savoliuk1.73111012113WSep 10 · 14:30M. Mrykh2.001311113O. Strutinskiy1.7311840LSep 10 · 12:30M. Mrykh2.00119891M. Deineha1.7381111113WSep 8 · 12:20M. Mrykh1.6111116113I. Nitchenko2.20981191LSep 8 · 10:20A. Derevianko1.6111312113M. Mrykh2.208111041LSep 8 · 09:20M. Mrykh1.805670O. Strutinskiy1.911111113LSep 8 · 08:20E. Hrytsenko2.501111113M. Mrykh1.506790LSep 8 · 06:50M. Mrykh1.44116591O. Zhyrnov2.6341111113WSep 7 · 19:00M. Mrykh2.001211113O. Strutinskiy1.7310430LSep 7 · 17:00V. Maksuta1.36712118113M. Mrykh3.00111091192
A. Derevianko10
LSep 10 · 17:30M. Deineha1.83391111133A. Derevianko1.83111195112WSep 10 · 14:00V. Savoliuk1.57114881A. Derevianko2.2581111113LSep 10 · 12:00I. Nitchenko1.731111113A. Derevianko2.007790WSep 8 · 11:50A. Derevianko1.731111133E. Hrytsenko2.0065110WSep 8 · 10:20A. Derevianko1.6111312113M. Mrykh2.208111041WSep 8 · 08:50A. Derevianko1.401111113O. Zhyrnov2.754650LSep 8 · 07:20A. Derevianko2.00117111172O. Strutinskiy1.73131159113WSep 8 · 05:50A. Derevianko2.25513116113I. Nitchenko1.57111141182WSep 7 · 18:30A. Derevianko2.50711116113V. Savoliuk1.5011961162LSep 7 · 16:30E. Hrytsenko2.105101113143A. Derevianko1.671112611122
Upcoming Matches
M. Mrykh
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A. Derevianko
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