TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13110970
Played Sep 11Finished
Andrii Derevianko
Home
1.88
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511611117116811
Oleksandr Strutinskiy
Away
1.82
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrii Derevianko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrii Derevianko above · Oleksandr Strutinskiy below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 87 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Andrii Derevianko at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Derevianko 53–64 Oleksandr Strutinskiy Andrii Derevianko has won 53 of their 117 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 11h before this match
Strutinskiy beat Derevianko 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:56What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.82 (51%)
Strutinskiy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
53-64 in 117
Strutinskiy
Correct
gap of 11 in 117, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevianko 1715 vs Strutinskiy 1666
Derevianko
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevianko 20% vs Strutinskiy 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevianko 50% vs Strutinskiy 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevianko -3 · Strutinskiy +1
Derevianko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Derevianko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strutinskiy form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevianko 1.88 / Strutinskiy 1.82
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Derevianko)+4.8pp
Setka Cup · #13110970
Derevianko1.88
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 134 of 326
Down 0–1, comes back25% 47 of 190
Down 0–2, comes back11% 11 of 101
Strutinskiy1.82
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 153 of 249
Up 2–0, closes it88% 77 of 88
Up 1–0, closes it74% 110 of 149
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevianko4wins
AwayStrutinskiy6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStrutinskiy leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevianko100%3 of 3
AwayStrutinskiy85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevianko3Strutinskiy7n = 10Strutinskiy took 7 of 10
S2Derevianko6Strutinskiy4n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S3Derevianko7Strutinskiy3n = 10Derevianko took 7 of 10
S4Derevianko4Strutinskiy2n = 6Derevianko took 4 of 6
S5Derevianko1Strutinskiy4n = 5Strutinskiy took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDereviankoStrutinskiyD − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.937.0−0.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDereviankoStrutinskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime460 / 970 vs 405 / 79147.4%51.2%460 / 970 vs 405 / 791Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DereviankoDerevianko 1.88/Strutinskiy 1.82
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Derevianko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Strutinskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 18:30A. Derevianko—89111182O. Strutinskiy—111189113
LSep 8 · 07:20A. Derevianko—117111172O. Strutinskiy—131159113
WSep 7 · 15:30A. Derevianko—1211113O. Strutinskiy—10890
WSep 4 · 09:50A. Derevianko—1111113O. Strutinskiy—4620
LSep 3 · 18:30A. Derevianko—811591O. Strutinskiy—11611113
LSep 1 · 07:50A. Derevianko—71111372O. Strutinskiy—115211113
LAug 31 · 13:00A. Derevianko—911101132O. Strutinskiy—116127113
WAug 28 · 09:50A. Derevianko—27161443O. Strutinskiy—1111141232
LAug 27 · 12:00A. Derevianko—9430O. Strutinskiy—1111113
WAug 25 · 12:20A. Derevianko—1111113O. Strutinskiy—8860
A. Derevianko10
LSep 10 · 18:30O. Strutinskiy1.80111189113A. Derevianko1.9189111182LSep 10 · 17:30M. Deineha1.83391111133A. Derevianko1.83111195112LSep 10 · 16:00M. Mrykh2.1011127113A. Derevianko1.676101181WSep 10 · 14:00V. Savoliuk1.57114881A. Derevianko2.2581111113LSep 10 · 12:00I. Nitchenko1.731111113A. Derevianko2.007790WSep 8 · 11:50A. Derevianko1.731111133E. Hrytsenko2.0065110WSep 8 · 10:20A. Derevianko1.6111312113M. Mrykh2.208111041WSep 8 · 08:50A. Derevianko1.401111113O. Zhyrnov2.754650LSep 8 · 07:20A. Derevianko2.00117111172O. Strutinskiy1.73131159113WSep 8 · 05:50A. Derevianko2.25513116113I. Nitchenko1.57111141182
O. Strutinskiy10
WSep 10 · 18:30O. Strutinskiy1.80111189113A. Derevianko1.9189111182LSep 10 · 16:30I. Nitchenko2.101113113O. Strutinskiy1.6781170LSep 10 · 15:30O. Strutinskiy1.91111197102M. Deineha1.80981111123LSep 10 · 14:30M. Mrykh2.001311113O. Strutinskiy1.7311840LSep 10 · 13:00O. Strutinskiy2.75211571V. Savoliuk1.4011511113LSep 8 · 12:50O. Zhyrnov3.7515127113O. Strutinskiy1.2513101191WSep 8 · 11:20O. Strutinskiy1.8311711113I. Nitchenko1.83711591WSep 8 · 09:20M. Mrykh1.805670O. Strutinskiy1.911111113WSep 8 · 07:20A. Derevianko2.00117111172O. Strutinskiy1.73131159113LSep 8 · 06:20E. Hrytsenko2.63611311113O. Strutinskiy1.4411411772
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