TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111179
Played Sep 11Finished
Maksym Mrykh
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811911114118711
Ivan Nitchenko
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:40 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeMaksym Mrykh to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Mrykh above · Ivan Nitchenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 91 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Maksym Mrykh at 55.3%
91 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Mrykh 5–2 Ivan Nitchenko Ivan Nitchenko has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:40What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Mrykh
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Mrykh
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrykh 1658 vs Nitchenko 1628
Mrykh
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrykh 40% vs Nitchenko 80%
Nitchenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrykh 30% vs Nitchenko 50%
Nitchenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrykh -2 · Nitchenko +3
Nitchenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mrykh) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nitchenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrykh 1.73 / Nitchenko 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Mrykh)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13111179
Mrykh1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 58 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it76% 40 of 53
Nitchenko2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 45 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back26% 15 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back15% 5 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMrykh5wins
AwayNitchenko2wins
3 of 7 to a deciderMrykh leads 5–2, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrykh100%4 of 4
AwayNitchenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrykh4Nitchenko3n = 7Mrykh took 4 of 7
S2Mrykh4Nitchenko3n = 7Mrykh took 4 of 7
S3Mrykh2Nitchenko5n = 7Nitchenko took 5 of 7
S4Mrykh5Nitchenko0n = 5Mrykh took 5 of 5
S5Mrykh2Nitchenko1n = 3Mrykh took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricMrykhNitchenkoM − NBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match42.738.3+4.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrykhNitchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime217 / 473 vs 192 / 39345.9%48.9%217 / 473 vs 192 / 393Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MrykhMrykh 1.73/Nitchenko 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mrykh · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nitchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 11 · 06:20M. Mrykh—89111172I. Nitchenko—111148113
LSep 10 · 18:00M. Mrykh—8890I. Nitchenko—1111113
WSep 8 · 12:20M. Mrykh—11116113I. Nitchenko—981191
WAug 21 · 06:20M. Mrykh—119711213I. Nitchenko—711115192
WJul 28 · 06:50M. Mrykh—711611143I. Nitchenko—117113122
WApr 20 · 11:40M. Mrykh—1111113I. Nitchenko—3590
WFeb 20 · 18:10M. Mrykh—111610113I. Nitchenko—7141261
M. Mrykh10
LSep 10 · 18:00I. Nitchenko2.201111113M. Mrykh1.618890LSep 10 · 17:00M. Mrykh2.005121051V. Savoliuk1.73111012113WSep 10 · 16:00M. Mrykh2.1011127113A. Derevianko1.676101181WSep 10 · 14:30M. Mrykh2.001311113O. Strutinskiy1.7311840LSep 10 · 12:30M. Mrykh2.00119891M. Deineha1.7381111113WSep 8 · 12:20M. Mrykh1.6111116113I. Nitchenko2.20981191LSep 8 · 10:20A. Derevianko1.6111312113M. Mrykh2.208111041LSep 8 · 09:20M. Mrykh1.805670O. Strutinskiy1.911111113LSep 8 · 08:20E. Hrytsenko2.501111113M. Mrykh1.506790LSep 8 · 06:50M. Mrykh1.44116591O. Zhyrnov2.6341111113
I. Nitchenko10
WSep 10 · 18:00I. Nitchenko2.201111113M. Mrykh1.618890WSep 10 · 16:30I. Nitchenko2.101113113O. Strutinskiy1.6781170WSep 10 · 15:00I. Nitchenko2.63381511143V. Savoliuk1.441111138122LSep 10 · 13:30I. Nitchenko2.108370M. Deineha1.671111113WSep 10 · 12:00I. Nitchenko1.731111113A. Derevianko2.007790LSep 8 · 12:20M. Mrykh1.6111116113I. Nitchenko2.20981191LSep 8 · 11:20O. Strutinskiy1.8311711113I. Nitchenko1.83711591LSep 8 · 09:50E. Hrytsenko1.73139711123I. Nitchenko2.001111111102WSep 8 · 07:50O. Zhyrnov2.20111010101I. Nitchenko1.6171212123LSep 8 · 05:50A. Derevianko2.25513116113I. Nitchenko1.57111141182
Upcoming Matches
M. Mrykh
I. Nitchenko
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.