TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111428
Played Sep 11Finished
Maksym Mrykh
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7117111012––––
Volodymyr Savoliuk
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaksym Mrykh to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Mrykh above · Volodymyr Savoliuk below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 58 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Maksym Mrykh at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Mrykh 9–5 Volodymyr Savoliuk Volodymyr Savoliuk has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:34What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Savoliuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-5 in 14
Mrykh
Wrong
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrykh 1634 vs Savoliuk 1680
Savoliuk
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrykh 20% vs Savoliuk 60%
Savoliuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrykh 40% vs Savoliuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrykh -1 · Savoliuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Savoliuk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrykh form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrykh 2.00 / Savoliuk 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Savoliuk)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13111428
Mrykh2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 34 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back14% 5 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Savoliuk1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 121 of 183
Up 2–0, closes it91% 61 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it81% 87 of 107
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrykh5wins
AwaySavoliuk5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrykh66.7%2 of 3
AwaySavoliuk57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrykh3Savoliuk7n = 10Savoliuk took 7 of 10
S2Mrykh9Savoliuk1n = 10Mrykh took 9 of 10
S3Mrykh4Savoliuk6n = 10Savoliuk took 6 of 10
S4Mrykh3Savoliuk5n = 8Savoliuk took 5 of 8
S5Mrykh2Savoliuk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrykhSavoliukM − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.340.9−0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrykhSavoliukBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 476 vs 297 / 52745.8%56.4%218 / 476 vs 297 / 527Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SavoliukMrykh 2.00/Savoliuk 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Savoliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Savoliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 10:50M. Mrykh—77100V. Savoliuk—1111123
LSep 10 · 17:00M. Mrykh—5121051V. Savoliuk—111012113
WSep 7 · 14:00M. Mrykh—5131011133V. Savoliuk—1111127112
WSep 1 · 08:20M. Mrykh—511117113V. Savoliuk—11961132
WAug 15 · 08:50M. Mrykh—11115113V. Savoliuk—991181
LNov 19 · 08:50M. Mrykh—4121181V. Savoliuk—111013113
LOct 8 · 09:20M. Mrykh—1111115122V. Savoliuk—136711143
WOct 7 · 17:20M. Mrykh—1111113V. Savoliuk—1890
LSep 8 · 13:10M. Mrykh—111110752V. Savoliuk—851211113
WFeb 20 · 17:10M. Mrykh—101411153V. Savoliuk—12124131
M. Mrykh10
LSep 11 · 09:50M. Mrykh1.80611111162O. Strutinskiy1.91119138113WSep 11 · 08:20M. Mrykh2.251171122M. Deineha1.57911921LSep 11 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.7389111172I. Nitchenko2.00111148113LSep 10 · 18:00I. Nitchenko2.201111113M. Mrykh1.618890LSep 10 · 17:00M. Mrykh2.005121051V. Savoliuk1.73111012113WSep 10 · 16:00M. Mrykh2.1011127113A. Derevianko1.676101181WSep 10 · 14:30M. Mrykh2.001311113O. Strutinskiy1.7311840LSep 10 · 12:30M. Mrykh2.00119891M. Deineha1.7381111113WSep 8 · 12:20M. Mrykh1.6111116113I. Nitchenko2.20981191LSep 8 · 10:20A. Derevianko1.6111312113M. Mrykh2.208111041
V. Savoliuk10
WSep 11 · 12:50V. Savoliuk1.50711711113I. Nitchenko2.5011411752WSep 11 · 08:50A. Derevianko2.20111168102V. Savoliuk1.61991111123WSep 11 · 07:50V. Savoliuk1.3391111113O. Strutinskiy3.25117911LSep 11 · 06:50M. Deineha2.2011118113V. Savoliuk1.61991181LSep 10 · 19:00V. Savoliuk1.4411711872M. Deineha2.63311911113WSep 10 · 17:00M. Mrykh2.005121051V. Savoliuk1.73111012113LSep 10 · 15:00I. Nitchenko2.63381511143V. Savoliuk1.441111138122LSep 10 · 14:00V. Savoliuk1.57114881A. Derevianko2.2581111113WSep 10 · 13:00O. Strutinskiy2.75211571V. Savoliuk1.4011511113LSep 8 · 16:40A. Hrabskyi1.5311511113V. Savoliuk2.38511881
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