TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111243
Played Sep 11Finished
Volodymyr Savoliuk
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711114711117115
Ivan Nitchenko
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:34 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Savoliuk to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Savoliuk above · Ivan Nitchenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 85 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Volodymyr Savoliuk at 62.9%
85 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Savoliuk 13–9 Ivan Nitchenko Ivan Nitchenko has won 9 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:34What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Savoliuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-9 in 22
Savoliuk
Correct
gap of 4 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Savoliuk 1680 vs Nitchenko 1622
Savoliuk
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Savoliuk 60% vs Nitchenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Savoliuk 50% vs Nitchenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Savoliuk +3 · Nitchenko -2
Savoliuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Savoliuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nitchenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSavoliuk 1.50 / Nitchenko 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Savoliuk)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13111243
Savoliuk1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 121 of 183
Up 2–0, closes it91% 61 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it81% 87 of 107
Nitchenko2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 45 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back26% 15 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back15% 5 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSavoliuk7wins
AwayNitchenko3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSavoliuk leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSavoliuk85.7%6 of 7
AwayNitchenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Savoliuk7Nitchenko3n = 10Savoliuk took 7 of 10
S2Savoliuk9Nitchenko1n = 10Savoliuk took 9 of 10
S3Savoliuk5Nitchenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Savoliuk3Nitchenko3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSavoliukNitchenkoS − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.330.7+7.6per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSavoliukNitchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime297 / 527 vs 193 / 39656.4%48.7%297 / 527 vs 193 / 396Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SavoliukSavoliuk 1.50/Nitchenko 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Savoliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Savoliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 15:00V. Savoliuk—1111138122I. Nitchenko—381511143
WAug 11 · 07:20V. Savoliuk—691111113I. Nitchenko—11119382
WAug 7 · 07:20V. Savoliuk—1111113I. Nitchenko—1540
WJul 21 · 07:20V. Savoliuk—1111113I. Nitchenko—6640
WJul 17 · 16:30V. Savoliuk—1111113I. Nitchenko—9730
LJul 14 · 10:50V. Savoliuk—811671I. Nitchenko—11611113
WJun 23 · 11:20V. Savoliuk—1111113I. Nitchenko—6990
LJun 16 · 07:50V. Savoliuk—711791I. Nitchenko—11911113
WJun 12 · 06:20V. Savoliuk—11119113I. Nitchenko—691181
WJun 9 · 08:20V. Savoliuk—11117113I. Nitchenko—971131
V. Savoliuk10
WSep 11 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.0077100V. Savoliuk1.731111123WSep 11 · 08:50A. Derevianko2.20111168102V. Savoliuk1.61991111123WSep 11 · 07:50V. Savoliuk1.3391111113O. Strutinskiy3.25117911LSep 11 · 06:50M. Deineha2.2011118113V. Savoliuk1.61991181LSep 10 · 19:00V. Savoliuk1.4411711872M. Deineha2.63311911113WSep 10 · 17:00M. Mrykh2.005121051V. Savoliuk1.73111012113LSep 10 · 15:00I. Nitchenko2.63381511143V. Savoliuk1.441111138122LSep 10 · 14:00V. Savoliuk1.57114881A. Derevianko2.2581111113WSep 10 · 13:00O. Strutinskiy2.75211571V. Savoliuk1.4011511113LSep 8 · 16:40A. Hrabskyi1.5311511113V. Savoliuk2.38511881
I. Nitchenko10
LSep 11 · 11:20I. Nitchenko1.83911491O. Strutinskiy1.8311811113LSep 11 · 09:20M. Deineha1.4416413113I. Nitchenko2.6314111161WSep 11 · 07:20A. Derevianko2.50111196162I. Nitchenko1.50851111183WSep 11 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.7389111172I. Nitchenko2.00111148113WSep 10 · 18:00I. Nitchenko2.201111113M. Mrykh1.618890WSep 10 · 16:30I. Nitchenko2.101113113O. Strutinskiy1.6781170WSep 10 · 15:00I. Nitchenko2.63381511143V. Savoliuk1.441111138122LSep 10 · 13:30I. Nitchenko2.108370M. Deineha1.671111113WSep 10 · 12:00I. Nitchenko1.731111113A. Derevianko2.007790LSep 8 · 12:20M. Mrykh1.6111116113I. Nitchenko2.20981191
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