TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111777
Played Sep 11Finished
Andrii Derevianko
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181159116111618
Ivan Nitchenko
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:33 and never touched — 62.3% is still 62.3%
Graded at full timeIvan Nitchenko to win
62.3%
62.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Derevianko above · Ivan Nitchenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 16-18
Point 106 set 5, 16-18 — our read held Ivan Nitchenko at 62.3%
106 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Derevianko 11–26 Ivan Nitchenko Andrii Derevianko has won 11 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:33What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Nitchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-26 in 37
Nitchenko
Correct
gap of 15 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevianko 1703 vs Nitchenko 1628
Derevianko
Wrong
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevianko 20% vs Nitchenko 80%
Nitchenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevianko 40% vs Nitchenko 60%
Nitchenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevianko -4 · Nitchenko +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Nitchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nitchenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevianko 2.50 / Nitchenko 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Nitchenko)-0.2pp
Setka Cup · #13111777
Derevianko2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 134 of 326
Down 0–1, comes back25% 47 of 190
Down 0–2, comes back11% 11 of 101
Nitchenko1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 47 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it75% 36 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevianko3wins
AwayNitchenko7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNitchenko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDereviankon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayNitchenko77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevianko1Nitchenko9n = 10Nitchenko took 9 of 10
S2Derevianko6Nitchenko4n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S3Derevianko4Nitchenko6n = 10Nitchenko took 6 of 10
S4Derevianko3Nitchenko3n = 6split evenly
S5Derevianko1Nitchenko2n = 3Nitchenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricDereviankoNitchenkoD − NBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match35.737.4−1.7per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDereviankoNitchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime460 / 971 vs 192 / 39347.4%48.9%460 / 971 vs 192 / 393Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NitchenkoDerevianko 2.50/Nitchenko 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.3%
Nitchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nitchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 12:00A. Derevianko—7790I. Nitchenko—1111113
WSep 8 · 05:50A. Derevianko—513116113I. Nitchenko—111141182
WSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko—51312123I. Nitchenko—111110101
LAug 21 · 11:20A. Derevianko—91181172I. Nitchenko—113116113
WAug 11 · 11:50A. Derevianko—1111113I. Nitchenko—6940
LAug 7 · 09:20A. Derevianko—81090I. Nitchenko—1112113
LAug 4 · 11:50A. Derevianko—8111271I. Nitchenko—11414113
LJul 31 · 10:50A. Derevianko—89110I. Nitchenko—1111133
LJul 28 · 08:20A. Derevianko—731171I. Nitchenko—11115113
LJul 21 · 11:50A. Derevianko—811611102I. Nitchenko—115117123
A. Derevianko10
LSep 11 · 05:50A. Derevianko1.8856111182O. Strutinskiy1.82111176113LSep 10 · 18:30O. Strutinskiy1.80111189113A. Derevianko1.9189111182LSep 10 · 17:30M. Deineha1.83391111133A. Derevianko1.83111195112LSep 10 · 16:00M. Mrykh2.1011127113A. Derevianko1.676101181WSep 10 · 14:00V. Savoliuk1.57114881A. Derevianko2.2581111113LSep 10 · 12:00I. Nitchenko1.731111113A. Derevianko2.007790WSep 8 · 11:50A. Derevianko1.731111133E. Hrytsenko2.0065110WSep 8 · 10:20A. Derevianko1.6111312113M. Mrykh2.208111041WSep 8 · 08:50A. Derevianko1.401111113O. Zhyrnov2.754650LSep 8 · 07:20A. Derevianko2.00117111172O. Strutinskiy1.73131159113
I. Nitchenko10
WSep 11 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.7389111172I. Nitchenko2.00111148113WSep 10 · 18:00I. Nitchenko2.201111113M. Mrykh1.618890WSep 10 · 16:30I. Nitchenko2.101113113O. Strutinskiy1.6781170WSep 10 · 15:00I. Nitchenko2.63381511143V. Savoliuk1.441111138122LSep 10 · 13:30I. Nitchenko2.108370M. Deineha1.671111113WSep 10 · 12:00I. Nitchenko1.731111113A. Derevianko2.007790LSep 8 · 12:20M. Mrykh1.6111116113I. Nitchenko2.20981191LSep 8 · 11:20O. Strutinskiy1.8311711113I. Nitchenko1.83711591LSep 8 · 09:50E. Hrytsenko1.73139711123I. Nitchenko2.001111111102WSep 8 · 07:50O. Zhyrnov2.20111010101I. Nitchenko1.6171212123
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