TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111172
Played Sep 11Finished
Ivan Nitchenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911118411911––
Oleksandr Strutinskiy
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Nitchenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Nitchenko above · Oleksandr Strutinskiy below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 74 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Ivan Nitchenko at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Nitchenko 19–22 Oleksandr Strutinskiy Ivan Nitchenko has won 19 of their 41 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:25What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Strutinskiy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-22 in 41
Strutinskiy
Correct
gap of 3 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nitchenko 1632 vs Strutinskiy 1676
Strutinskiy
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nitchenko 80% vs Strutinskiy 60%
Nitchenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nitchenko 60% vs Strutinskiy 40%
Nitchenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nitchenko -1 · Strutinskiy +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Nitchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nitchenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNitchenko 1.83 / Strutinskiy 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Nitchenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13111172
Nitchenko1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Strutinskiy1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNitchenko5wins
AwayStrutinskiy5wins
Level at 5–5.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNitchenko66.7%4 of 6
AwayStrutinskiy75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nitchenko6Strutinskiy4n = 10Nitchenko took 6 of 10
S2Nitchenko6Strutinskiy4n = 10Nitchenko took 6 of 10
S3Nitchenko4Strutinskiy6n = 10Strutinskiy took 6 of 10
S4Nitchenko3Strutinskiy4n = 7Strutinskiy took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNitchenkoStrutinskiyN − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.134.7−0.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNitchenkoStrutinskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime193 / 395 vs 407 / 79448.9%51.3%193 / 395 vs 407 / 794Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NitchenkoNitchenko 1.83/Strutinskiy 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Nitchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Strutinskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 16:30I. Nitchenko—1113113O. Strutinskiy—81170
LSep 8 · 11:20I. Nitchenko—711591O. Strutinskiy—11711113
WSep 4 · 11:20I. Nitchenko—1111113O. Strutinskiy—6580
LAug 21 · 12:50I. Nitchenko—1166101O. Strutinskiy—91111123
LAug 11 · 05:50I. Nitchenko—116371O. Strutinskiy—41111113
WAug 7 · 11:20I. Nitchenko—151014113O. Strutinskiy—13121241
WAug 4 · 05:50I. Nitchenko—11113113O. Strutinskiy—931191
LJul 21 · 05:50I. Nitchenko—6850O. Strutinskiy—1111113
WJul 17 · 15:30I. Nitchenko—61111123O. Strutinskiy—1186101
LJul 14 · 07:50I. Nitchenko—811891O. Strutinskiy—11811113
I. Nitchenko10
LSep 11 · 12:50V. Savoliuk1.50711711113I. Nitchenko2.5011411752LSep 11 · 09:20M. Deineha1.4416413113I. Nitchenko2.6314111161WSep 11 · 07:20A. Derevianko2.50111196162I. Nitchenko1.50851111183WSep 11 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.7389111172I. Nitchenko2.00111148113WSep 10 · 18:00I. Nitchenko2.201111113M. Mrykh1.618890WSep 10 · 16:30I. Nitchenko2.101113113O. Strutinskiy1.6781170WSep 10 · 15:00I. Nitchenko2.63381511143V. Savoliuk1.441111138122LSep 10 · 13:30I. Nitchenko2.108370M. Deineha1.671111113WSep 10 · 12:00I. Nitchenko1.731111113A. Derevianko2.007790LSep 8 · 12:20M. Mrykh1.6111116113I. Nitchenko2.20981191
O. Strutinskiy10
WSep 11 · 12:20M. Deineha1.67113101162O. Strutinskiy2.10811126113WSep 11 · 09:50M. Mrykh1.80611111162O. Strutinskiy1.91119138113LSep 11 · 07:50V. Savoliuk1.3391111113O. Strutinskiy3.25117911WSep 11 · 05:50A. Derevianko1.8856111182O. Strutinskiy1.82111176113WSep 10 · 18:30O. Strutinskiy1.80111189113A. Derevianko1.9189111182LSep 10 · 16:30I. Nitchenko2.101113113O. Strutinskiy1.6781170LSep 10 · 15:30O. Strutinskiy1.91111197102M. Deineha1.80981111123LSep 10 · 14:30M. Mrykh2.001311113O. Strutinskiy1.7311840LSep 10 · 13:00O. Strutinskiy2.75211571V. Savoliuk1.4011511113LSep 8 · 12:50O. Zhyrnov3.7515127113O. Strutinskiy1.2513101191
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