TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13109776
Played Sep 10Finished
Jan Vrnak
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115911113411113
Antonin Skyba
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingJan Vrnak above · Antonin Skyba below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 79 set 5, 11-3
79 points played in total.
H2H Jan Vrnak 5–7 Antonin Skyba Jan Vrnak has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Skyba beat Vrnak 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Skyba)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skyba form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVrnak 2.38 / Skyba 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Skyba)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13109776
Vrnak2.38
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 18 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back3% 1 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Skyba1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 20 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it68% 15 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVrnak4wins
AwaySkyba6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSkyba leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVrnak80%4 of 5
AwaySkyba100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vrnak5Skyba5n = 10split evenly
S2Vrnak1Skyba9n = 10Skyba took 9 of 10
S3Vrnak6Skyba4n = 10Vrnak took 6 of 10
S4Vrnak2Skyba4n = 6Skyba took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricVrnakSkybaV − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.435.2−1.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVrnakSkybaBasisWin rate · lifetime93 / 214 vs 96 / 23743.5%40.5%93 / 214 vs 96 / 237Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkybaVrnak 2.38/Skyba 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.6%
Skyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vrnak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 11:00J. Vrnak—116771A. Skyba—71111113
LSep 3 · 07:30J. Vrnak—961171A. Skyba—11115113
LJul 30 · 08:48J. Vrnak—9890A. Skyba—1111113
LJul 30 · 07:30J. Vrnak—871181A. Skyba—11116113
WJun 22 · 07:30J. Vrnak—1111113A. Skyba—8980
LMay 28 · 07:00J. Vrnak—111040A. Skyba—1312113
WMay 21 · 07:30J. Vrnak—11511133A. Skyba—9115111
WMar 26 · 06:45J. Vrnak—11911113A. Skyba—511241
LJan 13 · 10:10J. Vrnak—7940A. Skyba—1111103
WJan 13 · 08:00J. Vrnak—1111125113A. Skyba—913101182
J. Vrnak10
LSep 10 · 12:00P. Muller1.5312117113J. Vrnak2.381091151LSep 10 · 11:00A. Skyba1.4471111113J. Vrnak2.63116771WSep 10 · 09:30T. Holomek2.2091060J. Vrnak1.611112113LSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 07:30J. Vrnak2.20961171A. Skyba1.6111115113LSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LSep 3 · 05:30J. Vrnak3.401177101L. Krutina1.3041111123LAug 8 · 20:33J. Vrnak3.3051290M. Vydra1.251114113LAug 8 · 19:30M. Vydra1.401111113J. Vrnak2.755920LAug 8 · 19:00J. Vrnak2.20711471D. Sabuka1.6111911103
A. Skyba10
LSep 10 · 11:30T. Holomek1.83111811143A. Skyba1.83117119122WSep 10 · 11:00A. Skyba1.4471111113J. Vrnak2.63116771LSep 10 · 10:00A. Skyba1.57811731P. Muller2.2511911113LSep 3 · 09:03L. Krutina2.101111610133A. Skyba1.67971112112WSep 3 · 07:30J. Vrnak2.20961171A. Skyba1.6111115113WSep 3 · 07:00A. Skyba2.381111113L. Krutina1.535670WSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972LSep 1 · 08:43D. Sabuka1.221111113A. Skyba4.007940WSep 1 · 07:30M. Cervenka3.255660A. Skyba1.331111113LSep 1 · 07:00A. Skyba3.751111791D. Sabuka1.2513611113
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