TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13108804
Played Sep 10Finished
Mateusz Galus
Home
1.66
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811119411711––
Marcin Stepien
Away
2.05
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Galus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
811119411711––
H2H Mateusz Galus 48–29 Marcin Stepien Marcin Stepien has won 29 of their 77 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:03What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (55%)
Galus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
48-29 in 77
Galus
Wrong
gap of 19 in 77, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Galus 1643 vs Stepien 1604
Galus
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Galus 60% vs Stepien 0%
Galus
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Galus 70% vs Stepien 30%
Galus
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Galus +2 · Stepien -5
Stepien
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Galus) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stepien form (0%) is below what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGalus 1.66 / Stepien 2.05
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Galus)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13108804
Galus1.66
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 139 of 243
Up 2–0, closes it97% 67 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it78% 98 of 126
Stepien2.05
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 34 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back30% 11 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGalus5wins
AwayStepien5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGalus100%4 of 4
AwayStepien83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Galus4Stepien6n = 10Stepien took 6 of 10
S2Galus4Stepien6n = 10Stepien took 6 of 10
S3Galus7Stepien3n = 10Galus took 7 of 10
S4Galus3Stepien3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGalusStepienG − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.834.6+0.2per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGalusStepienBasisWin rate · lifetime349 / 659 vs 645 / 117153%55.1%349 / 659 vs 645 / 1171Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GalusGalus 1.66/Stepien 2.05
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.7%
Galus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stepien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 05:30M. Galus—591111113M. Stepien—11118392
LAug 30 · 19:35M. Galus—10880M. Stepien—1211113
WAug 27 · 09:30M. Galus—1311113M. Stepien—11240
LAug 25 · 07:00M. Galus—91111292M. Stepien—118511113
WAug 20 · 13:30M. Galus—11813113M. Stepien—9111151
LAug 20 · 08:30M. Galus—411871M. Stepien—11711113
LAug 18 · 11:30M. Galus—551171M. Stepien—11117113
LAug 4 · 05:30M. Galus—8760M. Stepien—1111113
WAug 3 · 13:20M. Galus—1111113M. Stepien—8880
WAug 3 · 11:30M. Galus—11912113M. Stepien—8111051
M. Galus10
WSep 10 · 13:10S. Wloszek2.8071170M. Galus1.391113113WSep 10 · 09:30M. Ovcharenko1.4981090M. Galus2.341112113WSep 10 · 08:30M. Galus1.7414912113S. Radlo1.9512111041LSep 10 · 07:30S. Wloszek2.558111110143M. Galus1.46116412122LSep 10 · 07:00M. Galus2.2513781172D. Skvarskyi1.541111117113WAug 31 · 13:30M. Lysakowski1.7211111081M. Galus1.9361312113WAug 31 · 12:00B. Molka2.316540M. Galus1.501111113LAug 31 · 10:30M. Galus1.917780M. Lysakowski1.781111113WAug 31 · 08:30S. Radlo1.83251141M. Galus1.8311119113WAug 31 · 06:30P. Gola1.8612760M. Galus1.801411113
M. Stepien10
WSep 10 · 12:40S. Radlo2.308640M. Stepien1.551111113LSep 10 · 10:30S. Radlo2.291311113M. Stepien1.5111890LSep 10 · 09:00S. Wloszek2.551381112123M. Stepien1.411111814102LSep 10 · 06:10D. Skvarskyi1.471111113M. Stepien2.509480LSep 10 · 05:30M. Ovcharenko1.461091311113M. Stepien2.42121111632LSep 7 · 13:10M. Stepien1.48811711102B. Molka2.35115115123LSep 7 · 12:00M. Stepien2.4111511142D. Skvarskyi1.46811911113WSep 7 · 10:00B. Molka2.2511891192M. Stepien1.57511115113WSep 7 · 08:00S. Radlo2.419570M. Stepien1.461111113WSep 7 · 07:00M. Stepien1.361113113M. Burkacki2.8071160
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