TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13051506
Played Aug 31Finished
Mateusz Galus
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711711811––––
Michal Lysakowski
Away
1.78
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:45 and never touched — 55.0% is still 55.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Lysakowski to win
55.0%
55.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
55 points played in total.
Set by set
711711811––––
H2H Mateusz Galus 42–44 Michal Lysakowski Mateusz Galus has won 42 of their 86 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:45What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.78 (52%)
Lysakowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
42-44 in 86
Lysakowski
Correct
gap of 2 in 86, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Galus 1607 vs Lysakowski 1622
Lysakowski
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Galus 60% vs Lysakowski 80%
Lysakowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Galus 40% vs Lysakowski 70%
Lysakowski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Galus +3 · Lysakowski +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lysakowski) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysakowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGalus 1.91 / Lysakowski 1.78
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lysakowski)+2.3pp
TT Cup · #13051506
Galus1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 36 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back28% 11 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Lysakowski1.78
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 185 of 348
Up 2–0, closes it90% 121 of 135
Up 1–0, closes it73% 160 of 218
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGalus4wins
AwayLysakowski6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLysakowski leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGalusn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLysakowski75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Galus2Lysakowski8n = 10Lysakowski took 8 of 10
S2Galus6Lysakowski4n = 10Galus took 6 of 10
S3Galus3Lysakowski7n = 10Lysakowski took 7 of 10
S4Galus4Lysakowski2n = 6Galus took 4 of 6
S5Galus2Lysakowski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricGalusLysakowskiG − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.340.6−2.3per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGalusLysakowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime357 / 674 vs 641 / 131953%48.6%357 / 674 vs 641 / 1319Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LysakowskiGalus 1.91/Lysakowski 1.78
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lysakowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lysakowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 17:35M. Galus—1111113M. Lysakowski—7990
WAug 26 · 07:00M. Galus—129177113M. Lysakowski—1111151182
LAug 25 · 13:10M. Galus—1211691M. Lysakowski—14911113
WAug 25 · 09:30M. Galus—91111113M. Lysakowski—118371
LAug 19 · 09:00M. Galus—81291132M. Lysakowski—1110119113
LAug 18 · 07:00M. Galus—98100M. Lysakowski—1111123
LAug 3 · 10:30M. Galus—9690M. Lysakowski—1111113
LAug 2 · 23:35M. Galus—81181142M. Lysakowski—119116113
LAug 2 · 19:35M. Galus—71290M. Lysakowski—1114113
WJul 22 · 06:00M. Galus—813611123M. Lysakowski—1111115102
M. Galus10
LSep 10 · 07:30S. Wloszek2.558111110143M. Galus1.46116412122LSep 10 · 07:00M. Galus2.2513781172D. Skvarskyi1.541111117113WAug 31 · 13:30M. Lysakowski1.7211111081M. Galus1.9361312113WAug 31 · 12:00B. Molka2.316540M. Galus1.501111113WAug 31 · 08:30S. Radlo1.83251141M. Galus1.8311119113WAug 31 · 06:30P. Gola1.8612760M. Galus1.801411113WAug 31 · 05:30M. Stepien1.8611118392M. Galus1.83591111113LAug 30 · 22:45B. Molka2.10131158123M. Galus1.651161111102LAug 30 · 21:35M. Galus1.687770J. Masternak2.051111113LAug 30 · 19:35M. Stepien1.811211113M. Galus1.8310880
M. Lysakowski10
WSep 9 · 13:10M. Lysakowski1.5813116133D. Stapor2.1411611111LSep 9 · 11:00P. Gola1.8311913123M. Lysakowski1.8781111101WSep 9 · 10:00M. Lysakowski1.58111111113D. Stapor2.20981361WSep 9 · 09:00M. Lysakowski1.41911115113S. Wloszek2.6011591182LSep 9 · 07:30M. Lysakowski1.39812100M. Burkacki2.801114123WSep 9 · 05:30M. Lysakowski1.761411113D. Skvarskyi1.9012460LSep 7 · 13:40D. Skvarskyi1.8711111410113M. Lysakowski1.83613121232WSep 7 · 11:30M. Lysakowski1.361111411123M. Burkacki2.75851113102WSep 7 · 09:30S. Radlo2.101148101M. Lysakowski1.6091111123LAug 31 · 13:30M. Lysakowski1.7211111081M. Galus1.9361312113
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