TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13050199
Played Aug 31Finished
Marcin Stepien
Home
1.86
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
115119811311911
Mateusz Galus
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarcin Stepien to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
89 points played in total.
Set by set
115119811311911
H2H Marcin Stepien 29–47 Mateusz Galus Marcin Stepien has won 29 of their 76 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:53What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Galus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-47 in 76
Galus
Correct
gap of 18 in 76, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stepien 1680 vs Galus 1567
Stepien
Wrong
both rated, 112 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepien 60% vs Galus 20%
Stepien
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepien 50% vs Galus 30%
Stepien
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepien -2 · Galus -4
Galus
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stepien)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Galus form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepien 1.86 / Galus 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stepien)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13050199
Stepien1.86
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 34 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back29% 10 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Galus1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 145 of 258
Up 2–0, closes it97% 67 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it76% 100 of 131
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStepien5wins
AwayGalus5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStepien83.3%5 of 6
AwayGalus100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stepien6Galus4n = 10Stepien took 6 of 10
S2Stepien5Galus5n = 10split evenly
S3Stepien3Galus7n = 10Galus took 7 of 10
S4Stepien4Galus2n = 6Stepien took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStepienGalusS − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.435.0+0.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepienGalusBasisWin rate · lifetime645 / 1166 vs 354 / 67155.3%52.8%645 / 1166 vs 354 / 671Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepienStepien 1.86/Galus 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stepien · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Galus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 19:35M. Stepien—1211113M. Galus—10880
LAug 27 · 09:30M. Stepien—11240M. Galus—1311113
WAug 25 · 07:00M. Stepien—118511113M. Galus—91111292
LAug 20 · 13:30M. Stepien—9111151M. Galus—11813113
WAug 20 · 08:30M. Stepien—11711113M. Galus—411871
WAug 18 · 11:30M. Stepien—11117113M. Galus—551171
WAug 4 · 05:30M. Stepien—1111113M. Galus—8760
LAug 3 · 13:20M. Stepien—8880M. Galus—1111113
LAug 3 · 11:30M. Stepien—8111051M. Galus—11912113
LAug 2 · 17:35M. Stepien—119811112M. Galus—611118133
M. Stepien10
LSep 10 · 06:10D. Skvarskyi1.471111113M. Stepien2.509480LSep 10 · 05:30M. Ovcharenko1.461091311113M. Stepien2.42121111632LSep 7 · 13:10M. Stepien1.48811711102B. Molka2.35115115123LSep 7 · 12:00M. Stepien2.4111511142D. Skvarskyi1.46811911113WSep 7 · 10:00B. Molka2.2511891192M. Stepien1.57511115113WSep 7 · 08:00S. Radlo2.419570M. Stepien1.461111113WSep 7 · 07:00M. Stepien1.361113113M. Burkacki2.8071160LSep 7 · 06:00M. Lysakowski2.01124911143M. Stepien1.661011118122WSep 6 · 23:05M. Stepien1.351111113S. Wloszek3.008330WSep 6 · 21:05J. Masternak3.309460M. Stepien1.301111113
M. Galus10
LSep 10 · 07:30S. Wloszek2.558111110143M. Galus1.46116412122LSep 10 · 07:00M. Galus2.2513781172D. Skvarskyi1.541111117113WAug 31 · 13:30M. Lysakowski1.7211111081M. Galus1.9361312113WAug 31 · 12:00B. Molka2.316540M. Galus1.501111113LAug 31 · 10:30M. Galus1.917780M. Lysakowski1.781111113WAug 31 · 08:30S. Radlo1.83251141M. Galus1.8311119113WAug 31 · 06:30P. Gola1.8612760M. Galus1.801411113LAug 30 · 22:45B. Molka2.10131158123M. Galus1.651161111102LAug 30 · 21:35M. Galus1.687770J. Masternak2.051111113LAug 30 · 19:35M. Stepien1.811211113M. Galus1.8310880
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.