TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105651
Played Sep 11Finished
Mykola Polysynskyi
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111161416511––
Mykyta Fomin
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMykyta Fomin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykola Polysynskyi above · Mykyta Fomin below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 14-16
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 82 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Mykyta Fomin at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Mykola Polysynskyi 2–3 Mykyta Fomin Mykola Polysynskyi has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:24What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Fomin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polysynskyi 1431 vs Fomin 1498
Fomin
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polysynskyi 40% vs Fomin 80%
Fomin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polysynskyi 40% vs Fomin 70%
Fomin
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polysynskyi -2 · Fomin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Fomin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fomin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolysynskyi 1.83 / Fomin 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Fomin)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13105651
Polysynskyi1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Fomin1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomePolysynskyi2wins
AwayFomin3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderFomin leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolysynskyi66.7%2 of 3
AwayFominn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polysynskyi3Fomin2n = 5Polysynskyi took 3 of 5
S2Polysynskyi0Fomin5n = 5Fomin took 5 of 5
S3Polysynskyi2Fomin3n = 5Fomin took 3 of 5
S4Polysynskyi2Fomin1n = 3Polysynskyi took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricPolysynskyiFominP − FBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match33.640.4−6.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolysynskyiFominBasisWin rate · lifetime357 / 690 vs 277 / 56851.7%48.8%357 / 690 vs 277 / 568Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FominPolysynskyi 1.83/Fomin 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Fomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fomin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 7 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi—11711113M. Fomin—811791
LAug 20 · 21:35M. Polysynskyi—5850M. Fomin—1111113
LAug 17 · 23:35M. Polysynskyi—6650M. Fomin—1111113
LJun 18 · 23:35M. Polysynskyi—11811672M. Fomin—911611113
WJun 11 · 03:05M. Polysynskyi—166611113M. Fomin—141111982
M. Polysynskyi10
LSep 11 · 24:05M. Polysynskyi1.5751111772M. Skliar2.25118911113LSep 10 · 22:35M. Polysynskyi1.738930D. Kim2.001111113WSep 10 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi1.83111284113A. Peretiatko1.83610111192WSep 8 · 03:05M. Polysynskyi1.571412113Y. Sokoltsov2.25121060LSep 8 · 01:35M. Polysynskyi1.73115581D. Kim2.0091111113LSep 8 · 24:05M. Polysynskyi1.57111011342D. Us2.25712911113LSep 7 · 22:35M. Polysynskyi1.83811131042A. Peretiatko1.831161112113WSep 7 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi2.2011711113M. Fomin1.61811791LAug 27 · 03:05M. Polysynskyi1.57114139122Y. Sokoltsov2.256111111143WAug 27 · 01:35M. Polysynskyi1.671111133D. Us2.1079110
M. Fomin10
LSep 11 · 24:35M. Fomin2.2081171132D. Kim1.61117114113WSep 10 · 23:35H. Kulishov1.80713871M. Fomin1.91111111113WSep 10 · 22:05M. Fomin1.671111113M. Skliar2.106370WSep 10 · 04:05H. Kulishov1.83111191262M. Fomin1.83461114113WSep 10 · 02:35M. Fomin2.20861111113D. Kim1.6111118992WSep 10 · 24:35Y. Stepanchuk1.67111141062M. Fomin2.10361112113WSep 9 · 22:35Y. Sokoltsov1.506850M. Fomin2.501111113LSep 9 · 21:35M. Skliar1.911011211113M. Fomin1.8012811252LSep 8 · 03:35D. Kim1.6111129113M. Fomin2.206101171LSep 7 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi2.2011711113M. Fomin1.61811791
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