TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13101925
Played Sep 9Finished
Richard Krejci
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711511511––––
Michal Vedmoch
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Vedmoch to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRichard Krejci above · Michal Vedmoch below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 50 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Michal Vedmoch at 54.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Richard Krejci 7–9 Michal Vedmoch Richard Krejci has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Krejci beat Vedmoch 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:54What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vedmoch
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-9 in 16
Vedmoch
Correct
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krejci 1646 vs Vedmoch 1641
Krejci
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krejci 80% vs Vedmoch 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krejci 70% vs Vedmoch 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krejci +2 · Vedmoch -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krejci) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vedmoch form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrejci 1.91 / Vedmoch 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krejci)+5.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13101925
Krejci1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 21 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back19% 6 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Vedmoch1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 206 of 328
Up 2–0, closes it96% 104 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it80% 159 of 198
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrejci3wins
AwayVedmoch7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderVedmoch leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrejci60%3 of 5
AwayVedmoch100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krejci5Vedmoch5n = 10split evenly
S2Krejci4Vedmoch6n = 10Vedmoch took 6 of 10
S3Krejci3Vedmoch7n = 10Vedmoch took 7 of 10
S4Krejci6Vedmoch2n = 8Krejci took 6 of 8
S5Krejci1Vedmoch5n = 6Vedmoch took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrejciVedmochK − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.442.2−2.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrejciVedmochBasisWin rate · lifetime186 / 348 vs 711 / 131953.5%53.9%186 / 348 vs 711 / 1319Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrejciKrejci 1.91/Vedmoch 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Krejci · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vedmoch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 15 · 01:30R. Krejci—131131172M. Vedmoch—1113115113
LAug 5 · 03:30R. Krejci—711118122M. Vedmoch—112411143
LAug 4 · 23:30R. Krejci—11971132M. Vedmoch—711117113
LJul 27 · 02:00R. Krejci—7730M. Vedmoch—1111113
LJul 21 · 02:30R. Krejci—1013111192M. Vedmoch—1211139113
LJul 2 · 03:30R. Krejci—81181362M. Vedmoch—1171111113
WJul 2 · 24:00R. Krejci—11511113M. Vedmoch—811991
WMar 16 · 02:30R. Krejci—11119113M. Vedmoch—871171
LFeb 18 · 24:00R. Krejci—3660M. Vedmoch—1111113
WJan 15 · 04:30R. Krejci—118116113M. Vedmoch—71141162
R. Krejci10
WSep 9 · 02:30R. Krejci1.831111113M. Vedmoch1.837550WSep 9 · 01:30J. Trefny3.5011291152R. Krejci1.28711119113LSep 9 · 24:00R. Krejci1.6711981132R. Pavelka2.10711119113WSep 8 · 23:00V. Postelt2.5010770R. Krejci1.501211113WSep 7 · 02:58R. Krejci2.631111113M. Sobisek1.449480LSep 7 · 02:00M. Sobisek1.4412712113R. Krejci2.6310111051LSep 7 · 24:30R. Krejci1.809980V. Cermak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:00R. Krejci1.911111113M. Chlebecek1.808670WSep 6 · 22:00M. Volf1.5771260R. Krejci2.251114113WSep 6 · 20:59T. Janata2.0011750R. Krejci1.731311113
M. Vedmoch10
LSep 9 · 02:30R. Krejci1.831111113M. Vedmoch1.837550WSep 9 · 01:00R. Pavelka1.731011951M. Vedmoch2.0012311113WSep 8 · 23:30M. Vedmoch1.44111112113J. Trefny2.63761481WSep 8 · 22:00M. Vedmoch1.53141110113V. Postelt2.381281291WSep 8 · 17:00J. Stolfa2.25111111342M. Vedmoch1.57132811113LSep 8 · 16:00V. Cermak1.4011911113M. Vedmoch2.75911721WSep 8 · 15:00J. Stolfa2.008870M. Vedmoch1.731111113LSep 8 · 14:30M. Vedmoch2.20912120M. Sobisek1.611114143LSep 7 · 21:30J. Hradecky1.4011137123M. Vedmoch2.7571111101WSep 7 · 20:00T. Janata1.40591351M. Vedmoch2.75111111113
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