TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13101123
Played Sep 11Finished
Thomas Pellny
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711119211111––
Marius Henninger
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:16 and never touched — 72.4% is still 72.4%
Graded at full timeMarius Henninger to win
72.4%
72.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingThomas Pellny above · Marius Henninger below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 1-11
Point 63 set 4, 1-11 — our read held Marius Henninger at 72.4%
63 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:16What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Henninger
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Pellny 1645 vs Henninger 1779
Henninger
Correct
both rated, 134 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pellny 80% vs Henninger 100%
Henninger
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pellny 50% vs Henninger 90%
Henninger
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pellny +2 · Henninger +5
Henninger
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Henninger) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Henninger form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPellny 2.50 / Henninger 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Henninger)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13101123
Pellny2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest67%takes the first set · 6 of 9
Henninger1.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 9
oldest → newest56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricPellnyHenningerBasisWin rate · lifetime15 / 24 vs 63 / 11162.5%56.8%15 / 24 vs 63 / 111Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.435.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HenningerPellny 2.50/Henninger 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Henninger · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Henninger won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
T. Pellny10
WSep 11 · 06:30T. Pellny1.17111497123K. Moosmann4.509121111102WSep 10 · 16:00T. Pellny1.101111113S. Amann6.508960LSep 10 · 12:30T. Pellny1.142D. Zech5.003WSep 10 · 11:00T. Pellny1.331110118143M. Bott3.25512611122WSep 10 · 08:30D. Cheaib1.17150T. Pellny4.50171WSep 10 · 07:00T. Pellny1.66111111113M. Stefanidis2.05813841LJun 23 · 10:44M. Stefanidis1.751111113T. Pellny1.959660LJun 23 · 09:15M. Danzer1.57611812113T. Pellny2.25117111062LJun 23 · 08:00T. Pellny2.10681121K. Fadeev1.6711118113LJun 23 · 07:30T. Pellny1.95681121K. Fadeev1.7511118113
M. Henninger10
WSep 11 · 09:30M. Henninger—1111113M. Stefanidis—4350WSep 10 · 17:00D. Cheaib1.331110191M. Henninger3.2581211113WSep 10 · 16:00M. Henninger—511117113M. Stefanidis—11891132WSep 10 · 13:00M. Henninger1.131111113M. Bott5.509230WSep 10 · 11:30K. Moosmann6.5010770M. Henninger1.101211113WSep 10 · 09:30S. Amann8.000M. Henninger1.063WSep 10 · 07:30D. Zech7.003890M. Henninger1.081111113WSep 8 · 11:00V. Senkbeil2.00119581M. Henninger1.7371111113WSep 8 · 09:45M. Henninger4.801111113R. Turrini1.154490WSep 8 · 07:30M. Henninger1.061511113K. Waltl8.0013130
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