TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13105041
Played Sep 10Finished
Thomas Pellny
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11510121168111412
Markus Bott
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–5Last 8Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:55 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeMarkus Bott to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingThomas Pellny above · Markus Bott below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 100 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Markus Bott at 56.6%
100 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:55What took a side0 for · 2 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Pellny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Pellny 1652 vs Bott 1372
Pellny
Correct
both rated, 280 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pellny 20% vs Bott 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pellny 50% vs Bott 38%
—
Too close
13pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pellny +1 · Bott -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Pellny) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bott form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPellny 1.33 / Bott 3.25
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Pellny)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13105041
Pellny1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Bott3.25
38%won 3 of 8 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest14%takes the first set · 1 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricPellnyBottBasisWin rate · lifetime11 / 19 vs 2 / 857.9%25%11 / 19 vs 2 / 8Avg sets wonper match2.01.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.532.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
Forecastthe model predicts this market
Match Winner
PellnyPellny 1.33/Bott 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.9%
Pellny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pellny won
Handicap · Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
T. Pellny10
WSep 10 · 08:30D. Cheaib1.17150T. Pellny4.50171WSep 10 · 07:00T. Pellny1.66111111113M. Stefanidis2.05813841LJun 23 · 10:44M. Stefanidis1.751111113T. Pellny1.959660LJun 23 · 09:15M. Danzer1.57611812113T. Pellny2.25117111062LJun 23 · 08:00T. Pellny2.10681121K. Fadeev1.6711118113LJun 23 · 07:30T. Pellny1.95681121K. Fadeev1.7511118113LJun 22 · 16:10T. Pellny1.80131111772M. Stefanidis1.901191311113WJun 22 · 14:00T. Pellny4.33511119113M. Danzer1.2011861182WJun 22 · 10:30T. Pellny1.731111117113M. Nogami2.0081371172WJun 22 · 08:30T. Pellny1.2812119113A. Ostrovskyi3.501061171
M. Bott10
WSep 10 · 10:00K. Moosmann2.10116881M. Bott1.6791111113LSep 10 · 06:30D. Cheaib1.0711811113M. Bott7.50811671LOct 3 · 08:00M. Hollo1.201211113M. Bott4.3310980LOct 3 · 07:00M. Bott3.5011121191M. Scharrer1.2813149113WOct 2 · 15:30G. Patil1.83391181M. Bott1.8311117113LOct 2 · 13:30C. Chang1.5011511113M. Bott2.50911991LOct 2 · 12:00M. Abedinian1.3011911113M. Bott3.40911661LOct 2 · 09:00K. Zeimys1.3011411113M. Bott3.40811561WOct 2 · 07:00D. Zech1.8311817542M. Bott1.835111511113WJun 11 · 15:30F. Saljani—1M. Bott—3
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