TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12081847
Played Jun 22Finished
Thomas Pellny
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181113117711117
Makoto Nogami
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingThomas Pellny above · Makoto Nogami below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 97 set 5, 11-7
97 points played in total.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pellny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nogami form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPellny 1.73 / Nogami 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pellny)+0.3pp
Challenger Series TT · #12081847
Pellny1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Nogami2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricPellnyNogamiBasisWin rate · lifetime16 / 25 vs 17 / 5964%28.8%16 / 25 vs 17 / 59Avg sets wonper match2.31.5per matchAvg pointsper match38.034.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
Forecastthe model predicts this market
Match Winner
PellnyPellny 1.73/Nogami 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pellny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pellny won
Handicap · Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
T. Pellny10
LJun 23 · 10:44M. Stefanidis1.751111113T. Pellny1.959660LJun 23 · 09:15M. Danzer1.57611812113T. Pellny2.25117111062LJun 23 · 08:00T. Pellny2.10681121K. Fadeev1.6711118113LJun 23 · 07:30T. Pellny1.95681121K. Fadeev1.7511118113LJun 22 · 16:10T. Pellny1.80131111772M. Stefanidis1.901191311113WJun 22 · 14:00T. Pellny4.33511119113M. Danzer1.2011861182WJun 22 · 08:30T. Pellny1.2812119113A. Ostrovskyi3.501061171WJun 22 · 06:30T. Pellny1.141111139113L. Dreykorn5.0096151182WApr 17 · 10:40D. Rinderer1.8371211952T. Pellny1.831110811113LApr 17 · 09:45G. Alcayde1.831111113T. Pellny1.836970
M. Nogami10
LAug 4 · 10:50K. Zimmermann1.0571111113M. Nogami8.50116931LAug 4 · 10:30K. Zimmermann—71111113M. Nogami—116931LAug 4 · 09:44M. Nogami1.83115111172M. Neumaier1.83711813113WAug 4 · 07:30M. Nogami7.2581111113J. Loffler1.05116771WAug 3 · 16:30M. Nogami1.61111111113L. Kraus2.20613991WAug 3 · 14:30M. Nogami1.831011811113M. Neumaier1.8312411992WAug 3 · 12:30J. Willeke3.256580M. Nogami1.331111113LAug 3 · 10:30K. Zimmermann1.6711119113M. Nogami2.10841121WAug 3 · 09:00M. Nogami1.131111123L. Hubner5.5033100LAug 3 · 07:30M. Nogami5.5076111272A. Mino1.131111910113
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