TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #11758801
Played Apr 17Finished
Guillaume Alcayde
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116119117––––
Thomas Pellny
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingGuillaume Alcayde above · Thomas Pellny below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 55 set 3, 11-7
55 points played in total.
H2H Guillaume Alcayde 0–1 Thomas Pellny Guillaume Alcayde has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pellny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pellny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAlcayde 1.83 / Pellny 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pellny)+4.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #11758801
The market does not separate these two
1.83 against 1.83 — a coin flip with a margin on top.
Below 3pp of separation the engine pins the read to 50 ± 4 and then drops the pick. So no percentage is published here — the price is the datum.
Alcayde1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Pellny1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeAlcayde0wins
AwayPellny1wins
Pellny leads 1–0.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricAlcaydePellnyA − PBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match43.047.0−4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAlcaydePellnyBasisWin rate · lifetime52 / 76 vs 14 / 2268.4%63.6%52 / 76 vs 14 / 22Avg sets wonper match2.32.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PellnyAlcayde 1.83/Pellny 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Pellny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Alcayde won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
L—G. Alcayde—2T. Pellny—3
G. Alcayde10
WMay 15 · 10:59M. Danzer1.6711117892G. Alcayde2.10921111113WMay 15 · 09:45G. Alcayde1.50312116113M. Scharrer2.50111081192LMay 15 · 08:30M. Danzer1.53851111113G. Alcayde2.3811119882WMay 14 · 17:00S. Happek6.00881161G. Alcayde1.1111115113WMay 14 · 15:30G. Alcayde1.111111133D. Zech6.0088110WMay 14 · 13:00G. Alcayde1.041111113L. Dreykorn9.008680LMay 14 · 11:30M. Scharrer2.381113113G. Alcayde1.5331180WMay 14 · 09:30J. Lama4.33211551G. Alcayde1.2011611113WMay 14 · 07:30M. Gremillion8.50513971G. Alcayde1.05111111113WMay 14 · 07:30M. Gremillon6.30513971G. Alcayde1.05111111113
T. Pellny10
LJun 23 · 10:44M. Stefanidis1.751111113T. Pellny1.959660LJun 23 · 09:15M. Danzer1.57611812113T. Pellny2.25117111062LJun 23 · 08:00T. Pellny2.10681121K. Fadeev1.6711118113LJun 23 · 07:30T. Pellny1.95681121K. Fadeev1.7511118113LJun 22 · 16:10T. Pellny1.80131111772M. Stefanidis1.901191311113WJun 22 · 14:00T. Pellny4.33511119113M. Danzer1.2011861182WJun 22 · 10:30T. Pellny1.731111117113M. Nogami2.0081371172WJun 22 · 08:30T. Pellny1.2812119113A. Ostrovskyi3.501061171WJun 22 · 06:30T. Pellny1.141111139113L. Dreykorn5.0096151182WApr 17 · 10:40D. Rinderer1.8371211952T. Pellny1.831110811113
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