TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #11894368
Played May 15Finished
Matthias Danzer
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119112711811911
Guillaume Alcayde
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingMatthias Danzer above · Guillaume Alcayde below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 90 set 5, 9-11
90 points played in total.
H2H Matthias Danzer 2–0 Guillaume Alcayde Guillaume Alcayde has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Danzer)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Alcayde form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDanzer 1.67 / Alcayde 2.10
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Danzer)+7.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #11894368
Danzer1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Alcayde2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeDanzer2wins
AwayAlcayde0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderDanzer leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricDanzerAlcaydeD − ABasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match45.543.5+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanzerAlcaydeBasisWin rate · lifetime187 / 259 vs 54 / 8372.2%65.1%187 / 259 vs 54 / 83Avg sets wonper match2.52.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanzerDanzer 1.67/Alcayde 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.8%
Danzer · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Alcayde won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WMay 15 · 08:30M. Danzer—3G. Alcayde—2
WJan 9 · 15:00M. Danzer—3G. Alcayde—1
M. Danzer10
LAug 25 · 11:00V. Yefimov1.46128711113M. Danzer2.55101111762WAug 25 · 09:45M. Danzer1.1812117113E. Huzsvar4.051071161WAug 25 · 07:30M. Henninger6.5011311692M. Danzer1.10911911113LAug 24 · 17:30M. Danzer1.8313781112V. Yefimov1.831111117113WAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113WAug 24 · 14:00P. Koloidenko8.001111181M. Danzer1.0611139113WAug 24 · 12:00M. Danzer—11117113E. Huzsvar—481191WAug 24 · 09:30M. Danzer1.031111113M. Kupfer10.004860WAug 24 · 08:00M. Danzer1.041111113J. Willeke8.107860WAug 21 · 11:00M. Danzer1.251111163N. Kizakisz3.4066140
G. Alcayde10
WMay 15 · 09:45G. Alcayde1.50312116113M. Scharrer2.50111081192LMay 15 · 08:30M. Danzer1.53851111113G. Alcayde2.3811119882WMay 14 · 17:00S. Happek6.00881161G. Alcayde1.1111115113WMay 14 · 15:30G. Alcayde1.111111133D. Zech6.0088110WMay 14 · 13:00G. Alcayde1.041111113L. Dreykorn9.008680LMay 14 · 11:30M. Scharrer2.381113113G. Alcayde1.5331180WMay 14 · 09:30J. Lama4.33211551G. Alcayde1.2011611113WMay 14 · 07:30M. Gremillion8.50513971G. Alcayde1.05111111113WMay 14 · 07:30M. Gremillon6.30513971G. Alcayde1.05111111113LMay 12 · 10:35G. Alcayde4.3396111152R. Turrini1.20111196113
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