TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #11879425
Played May 12Finished
Guillaume Alcayde
Home
4.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911611119116511
Rafael Turrini
Away
1.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingGuillaume Alcayde above · Rafael Turrini below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 90 set 5, 5-11
90 points played in total.
H2H Guillaume Alcayde 1–4 Rafael Turrini Guillaume Alcayde has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Turrini)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Alcayde form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAlcayde 4.33 / Turrini 1.20
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Turrini)-7.0pp (anti-value)
Challenger Series TT · #11879425
Alcayde4.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Turrini1.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeAlcayde1wins
AwayTurrini4wins
Turrini leads 4–1.
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Alcayde1Turrini4n = 5Turrini took 4 of 5
S2Alcayde1Turrini4n = 5Turrini took 4 of 5
S3Alcayde1Turrini4n = 5Turrini took 4 of 5
S4Alcayde1Turrini2n = 3Turrini took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricAlcaydeTurriniA − TBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match28.842.2−13.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAlcaydeTurriniBasisWin rate · lifetime48 / 74 vs 243 / 28764.9%84.7%48 / 74 vs 243 / 287Avg sets wonper match2.22.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TurriniAlcayde 4.33/Turrini 1.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.3%
Turrini · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Turrini won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LMay 11 · 09:00G. Alcayde—1R. Turrini—3
WDec 5 · 12:00G. Alcayde—3R. Turrini—2
LDec 4 · 18:30G. Alcayde—0R. Turrini—3
LDec 2 · 10:20G. Alcayde—1R. Turrini—3
LDec 1 · 09:00G. Alcayde—0R. Turrini—3
G. Alcayde10
WMay 15 · 10:59M. Danzer1.6711117892G. Alcayde2.10921111113WMay 15 · 09:45G. Alcayde1.50312116113M. Scharrer2.50111081192LMay 15 · 08:30M. Danzer1.53851111113G. Alcayde2.3811119882WMay 14 · 17:00S. Happek6.00881161G. Alcayde1.1111115113WMay 14 · 15:30G. Alcayde1.111111133D. Zech6.0088110WMay 14 · 13:00G. Alcayde1.041111113L. Dreykorn9.008680LMay 14 · 11:30M. Scharrer2.381113113G. Alcayde1.5331180WMay 14 · 09:30J. Lama4.33211551G. Alcayde1.2011611113WMay 14 · 07:30M. Gremillion8.50513971G. Alcayde1.05111111113WMay 14 · 07:30M. Gremillon6.30513971G. Alcayde1.05111111113
R. Turrini10
LSep 7 · 12:30R. Turrini1.101051541M. Henninger6.50121113113WSep 7 · 11:00R. Turrini1.011211113C. Schmitt13.0010760WSep 7 · 08:30M. Stefanidis6.258180R. Turrini1.081111113WSep 7 · 07:00R. Turrini1.321111143S. Almeida2.9554120LJul 22 · 20:55R. Turrini—5970E. Otalvaro—1111113WJul 21 · 20:35R. Turrini—11911123V. Thiofilo—9112101WJun 2 · 11:00R. Turrini1.281111113D. Rinderer3.509750WJun 2 · 09:15R. Turrini1.171111123J. Shim4.5099100WJun 2 · 08:30R. Turrini1.501111113E. Mendes2.506870WJun 2 · 06:30R. Turrini1.131111113K. Zimmermann5.507840
Upcoming Matches
G. Alcayde
Nothing scheduled
R. Turrini
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