TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13100392
Played Sep 10Finished
Thomas Pellny
Home
1.66
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181113118114––
Marco Stefanidis
Away
2.05
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarco Stefanidis to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
77 points played in total.
Set by set
1181113118114––
H2H Thomas Pellny 2–3 Marco Stefanidis Thomas Pellny has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:56What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (55%)
Pellny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pellny 1670 vs Stefanidis 1474
Pellny
Correct
both rated, 196 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pellny 0% vs Stefanidis 20%
Stefanidis
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pellny 50% vs Stefanidis 20%
Pellny
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pellny -5 · Stefanidis -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Pellny) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefanidis form (20%) is below what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPellny 1.66 / Stefanidis 2.05
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Pellny)-0.4pp
Challenger Series TT · #13100392
Pellny1.66
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Stefanidis2.05
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomePellny2wins
AwayStefanidis3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderStefanidis leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePellny50%2 of 4
AwayStefanidisn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pellny4Stefanidis1n = 5Pellny took 4 of 5
S2Pellny2Stefanidis3n = 5Stefanidis took 3 of 5
S3Pellny1Stefanidis4n = 5Stefanidis took 4 of 5
S4Pellny3Stefanidis1n = 4Pellny took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricPellnyStefanidisP − SBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match41.042.0−1.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPellnyStefanidisBasisWin rate · lifetime13 / 21 vs 67 / 17961.9%37.4%13 / 21 vs 67 / 179Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.633.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PellnyPellny 1.66/Stefanidis 2.05
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Pellny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pellny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 10 · 07:00T. Pellny—111111113M. Stefanidis—813841
LJun 23 · 10:44T. Pellny—9660M. Stefanidis—1111113
LJun 22 · 16:10T. Pellny—131111772M. Stefanidis—1191311113
WApr 16 · 06:30T. Pellny—11119113M. Stefanidis—691171
LMay 26 · 06:30T. Pellny—13781472M. Stefanidis—11111112113
T. Pellny10
WSep 10 · 11:00T. Pellny1.331110118143M. Bott3.25512611122WSep 10 · 08:30D. Cheaib1.17150T. Pellny4.50171LJun 23 · 10:44M. Stefanidis1.751111113T. Pellny1.959660LJun 23 · 09:15M. Danzer1.57611812113T. Pellny2.25117111062LJun 23 · 08:00T. Pellny2.10681121K. Fadeev1.6711118113LJun 23 · 07:30T. Pellny1.95681121K. Fadeev1.7511118113LJun 22 · 16:10T. Pellny1.80131111772M. Stefanidis1.901191311113WJun 22 · 14:00T. Pellny4.33511119113M. Danzer1.2011861182WJun 22 · 10:30T. Pellny1.731111117113M. Nogami2.0081371172WJun 22 · 08:30T. Pellny1.2812119113A. Ostrovskyi3.501061171
M. Stefanidis10
WSep 10 · 09:40D. Zech—1M. Stefanidis—3LSep 8 · 08:00M. Stefanidis—61113762S. Almeida—1151111113LSep 7 · 17:00M. Stefanidis—11211842V. Senkbeil—911711113LSep 7 · 15:00M. Stefanidis—761171K. Fadeev—11117113WSep 7 · 14:00M. Stefanidis1.3511111113K. Waltl2.90761141LSep 7 · 10:30M. Stefanidis4.70119961M. Henninger1.1461111113LSep 7 · 08:30M. Stefanidis6.258180R. Turrini1.081111113LSep 7 · 06:30M. Stefanidis—111081172C. Schmitt—912103113WJun 23 · 10:44M. Stefanidis1.751111113T. Pellny1.959660WJun 22 · 16:10T. Pellny1.80131111772M. Stefanidis1.901191311113
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