TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13101129
Played Sep 10Finished
Marius Henninger
Home
1.13
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119112113––––
Markus Bott
Away
5.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:17 and never touched — 66.8% is still 66.8%
Graded at full timeMarius Henninger to win
66.8%
66.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarius Henninger above · Markus Bott below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 47 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Marius Henninger at 66.8%
47 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:17What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.13 (83%)
Henninger
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Henninger 1747 vs Bott 1393
Henninger
Correct
both rated, 354 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Henninger 100% vs Bott 20%
Henninger
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Henninger 90% vs Bott 30%
Henninger
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Henninger +5 · Bott -1
Henninger
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% — Strong (leans Henninger) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Henninger form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (89%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHenninger 1.13 / Bott 5.50
Signal prob.83% / 17%
Edge (Henninger)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13101129
Henninger1.13
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest67%takes the first set · 6 of 9
Bott5.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricHenningerBottBasisWin rate · lifetime60 / 108 vs 2 / 855.6%25%60 / 108 vs 2 / 8Avg sets wonper match2.01.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.032.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HenningerHenninger 1.13/Bott 5.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
83%
Henninger · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Henninger won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
M. Henninger10
WSep 10 · 11:30K. Moosmann6.5010770M. Henninger1.101211113WSep 10 · 09:30S. Amann8.000M. Henninger1.063WSep 10 · 07:30D. Zech7.003890M. Henninger1.081111113WSep 8 · 11:00V. Senkbeil2.00119581M. Henninger1.7371111113WSep 8 · 09:45M. Henninger4.801111113R. Turrini1.154490WSep 8 · 07:30M. Henninger1.061511113K. Waltl8.0013130LSep 7 · 16:30M. Henninger2.0061250K. Fadeev1.731114113WSep 7 · 14:30M. Henninger1.0511116113C. Schmitt8.50751171WSep 7 · 12:30R. Turrini1.101051541M. Henninger6.50121113113WSep 7 · 10:30M. Stefanidis4.70119961M. Henninger1.1461111113
M. Bott10
LSep 10 · 11:00T. Pellny1.331110118143M. Bott3.25512611122WSep 10 · 10:00K. Moosmann2.10116881M. Bott1.6791111113LSep 10 · 06:30D. Cheaib1.0711811113M. Bott7.50811671LOct 3 · 08:00M. Hollo1.201211113M. Bott4.3310980LOct 3 · 07:00M. Bott3.5011121191M. Scharrer1.2813149113WOct 2 · 15:30G. Patil1.83391181M. Bott1.8311117113LOct 2 · 13:30C. Chang1.5011511113M. Bott2.50911991LOct 2 · 12:00M. Abedinian1.3011911113M. Bott3.40911661LOct 2 · 09:00K. Zeimys1.3011411113M. Bott3.40811561WOct 2 · 07:00D. Zech1.8311817542M. Bott1.835111511113
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