TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13098203
Played Sep 8Finished
Vincent Senkbeil
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117911511811––
Marius Henninger
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarius Henninger to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVincent Senkbeil above · Marius Henninger below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 73 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Marius Henninger at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Vincent Senkbeil 2–1 Marius Henninger Marius Henninger has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:30What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Henninger
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Senkbeil 1648 vs Henninger 1729
Henninger
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Senkbeil 80% vs Henninger 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Senkbeil 70% vs Henninger 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Senkbeil +1 · Henninger +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Henninger)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Henninger form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSenkbeil 2.00 / Henninger 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Henninger)+0.3pp
Challenger Series TT · #13098203
Senkbeil2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Henninger1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSenkbeil2wins
AwayHenninger1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderSenkbeil leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Senkbeil2Henninger1n = 3Senkbeil took 2 of 3
S2Senkbeil3Henninger0n = 3Senkbeil took 3 of 3
S3Senkbeil1Henninger2n = 3Henninger took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricSenkbeilHenningerS − HBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match38.035.3+2.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSenkbeilHenningerBasisWin rate · lifetime17 / 30 vs 57 / 10456.7%54.8%17 / 30 vs 57 / 104Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.935.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HenningerSenkbeil 2.00/Henninger 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Henninger · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Henninger won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 7 · 07:30V. Senkbeil—412891M. Henninger—111011113
WMar 5 · 10:00V. Senkbeil—1111113M. Henninger—4770
WSep 1 · 10:30V. Senkbeil—111185133M. Henninger—751111112
V. Senkbeil10
WSep 8 · 09:15K. Fadeev1.25117117122V. Senkbeil3.75911611143LSep 8 · 08:30R. Turrini1.131411113V. Senkbeil5.5012670WSep 7 · 17:00M. Stefanidis—11211842V. Senkbeil—911711113WSep 7 · 15:30V. Senkbeil—116114113S. Almeida—61171162WSep 7 · 13:00V. Senkbeil1.0861211113C. Schmitt7.001110351LSep 7 · 11:30K. Fadeev1.361111113V. Senkbeil3.008490WSep 7 · 09:30K. Waltl4.331187121V. Senkbeil1.2041111143LSep 7 · 07:30M. Henninger1.61111011113V. Senkbeil2.20412891WMar 6 · 11:28O. Naplokov—4990V. Senkbeil—1111113WMar 6 · 09:00M. Hardikar3.757780V. Senkbeil1.251111113
M. Henninger10
WSep 8 · 09:45M. Henninger4.801111113R. Turrini1.154490WSep 8 · 07:30M. Henninger1.061511113K. Waltl8.0013130LSep 7 · 16:30M. Henninger2.0061250K. Fadeev1.731114113WSep 7 · 14:30M. Henninger1.0511116113C. Schmitt8.50751171WSep 7 · 12:30R. Turrini1.101051541M. Henninger6.50121113113WSep 7 · 10:30M. Stefanidis4.70119961M. Henninger1.1461111113WSep 7 · 09:00M. Henninger1.221111113S. Almeida3.703640WSep 7 · 07:30M. Henninger1.61111011113V. Senkbeil2.20412891LSep 1 · 11:20A. Limonov1.83119119113M. Henninger1.8391111182WSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113
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